[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR A6s river spot - bluffcatching spot

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $5.91 - 118 bb
      UTG3: $1.75 - 35 bb
      MP1: $7.00 - 140 bb
      MP2: $4.89 - 98 bb
      MP3: $2.39 - 48 bb
      CO: $12.50 - 250 bb
      BU: $12.43 - 249 bb
      SB: $5.00 - 100 bb
      BB: $7.26 - 145 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.508.2

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:heart: , 6:heart:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), UTG2 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises for $0.25, 3 folds, UTG2 calls

      Flop: ($0.57 - 11.40 bb) J:spade: , 7:heart: , 7:club: (2 Players)
      UTG2 checks, Hero bets $0.30, UTG2 calls

      Turn: ($1.17 - 23.40 bb) A:spade: (2 Players)
      UTG2 checks, Hero checks

      River: ($1.17 - 23.40 bb) 9:heart: (2 Players)
      UTG2 bets $1.10, Hero folds, UTG2 gets uncalled back ($1.10)

      -----

      UTG2 was 30/8/0 over 41. FtCB - 67.

      TURN
      I check back for pot control as I don't get 2 streets of value here and I don't need to protect.

      RIVER
      Folding seems like the best option as I behind his value range and I doubt he bluffs here often enough, if ever.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Flop: i would check strong AX hands here. Vs someone who folds so often to cbets i think betting the weaker ace highs should be fine.

      The turn check is reasonable but river fold is way too weak. I would def call. I agree that he doesnt have too much air but quite often you will chop with other AX.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      Assuming he plays A8o+/A2s+ then my equity is 23.64% and I need about 33%.
      Board: Js7h7cAs9h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 23.64% 0.00% 23.64% { Ah6h }
      MP3 76.36% 52.73% 23.64% { A2s+, A8o+ }

      This is not including the possible trips/boats.

      Do you suggest that this guy is bluffing here often enough to justify a call or that he has a wider range of aces? Furthermore, my general observation is that people don't tend to bluff with pot size bets making bluffs less likely. Nor do they value bet Ax like that.

      For these reasons I think that folding is still better.

      David
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think you could argue for folding JX here but I feel that AX is too strong. So to answer your question, yes I think his range is going to be wider than what you suggested. Sometimes he turns 89/T9 into a bluff, sometimes he floats KQ on the Flop (not likely if he folds 67% but I think your sample is too small).

      we are going to lose often but we should be good at least 1 in 3 times IMO.

      Thanks.