[NL2-NL10] NL5 A6s

    • 00471
      00471
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2011 Posts: 2,590
      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $5 (100 bb)
      BB: $5.95 (119 bb)
      UTG: $3.38 (67.6 bb)
      MP: $2.91 (58.2 bb)
      CO: $14.83 (296.6 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $5.45 (109 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A:club: 6:club:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, SB folds, BB calls $0.07

      Flop: ($0.26) 2:diamond: 5:club: 3:club: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.40, BB raises to $0.70, Hero ?

      probably an aggro fish: 36/18/AFq 64/call open 45 after 28h

      I think that my donk raise is obvious. But isn't the sizing way too low?

      Given that he is a fish, he will have at least some OPs in his range. Therefore I've came up with an estimated range of:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 53.74% 53.31% 0.42% JJ-88, 55, 33-22, A4s, A4o
      MP3 46.26% 45.84% 0.42% Ac6c

      And the FEq calculator claims that:

      An all-in bet is profitable even if the villain never folds.
      Input: $4,93/45%/$1,36/$0,7

      So that's a 4b/push on the Flop.
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Yeah, as you can see, you are flipping even against his best range, so I would go broke here.
      Of course calling is an option indeed, as we have position and we can lower the variance.

      Best,
      Plamen