[NL20-NL50] 50NL K9o BvB possible spew??

    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      Full Tilt - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 101.5 BB
      SB: 98.6 BB
      Hero (BB): 105.3 BB
      UTG: 365.9 BB
      MP: 185.7 BB
      CO: 106.4 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: 9:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) A:spade: 4:diamond: 5:club: SB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

      Turn%s: (14 BB, 2 players) 9:club: SB bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

      River%s: (30 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond: SB bets 13 BB, Hero raises to 48 BB

      Hi,

      villain is stealing 70% from SB and cbetting 80% of flops.

      flop: I assume hes gonna cbet here close to 100% of his range and often times hes gonna bet once and give up on later. My K9 high is also often best hand here.

      turn: plan was to fold if he bets again, but once I hit a pair, I dont really want to fold. But I dont think my 9x is good enough so I can justify calling just to try to see a SD, so I think if I call here I will have to play back on some rivers if he bets again.

      river: I think I can credibly rep some sets and 2pair hands on this river, so I decided to bluff raise his weak bet..


      Thoughts? Thanks!
  • 5 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      Preflop is not a fold, that's for sure.

      On the flop you probably represent more showdown value hands by calling so it looks stronger and less polarised.

      On the turn, what hands does he bet that you don't beat? Do you think he bet/folds most Ax like this? Representing a hand is not a problem imo since you can have hands like A6, 99, 78 some of the time as well, some flopped slowplayed 44-55 so you can rep some value hands in a spot where people don't bluff often but you need to be against the right opponent.

      Here, he didn't start with a full stack.. What are his AFq by street and WTSD/W$SD stats?
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      @Emanuel - are your comments about turn or river? Ty.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Both really.. If we do want to bluff him of something we need to know:
      a) he bets quite wide with a lot of hands we don't beat
      b) he folds a good amount of hands we beat so that calling is lower EV
      c) we can represent some value hands in his eyes

      If none of those happen, then we are trying to bluff someone that only bets with hands he considers nutted, no matter how weak, so bluff raising either river or turn is bad imo.
    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      I dont have big enough sample to have some reads on his play on later streets (turn, river).

      I was able to make some exploitative reads on his pre flop and flop play. (which I stated in the OP)

      But on this specific turn card I was kinda torn between folding or continuing and turning my hand into a bluff on some runouts..
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      If you have no info whatsoever, then doing this at NL50 after facing a preflop raise and 3 barrels is usually bad since your opponent's rnage gets a lot narrower with each bet and on the river it's very TP+ heavy meaning you are trying to bluff BvB against a non-fullstack off his TP hand.. That's not the way to win money imo.. People fold a lot less than you expect them to.