[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR QQ turn spot - ship it for value?

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: €5.08 - 102 bb
      UTG3: €5.05 - 101 bb
      MP1: €6.95 - 139 bb
      MP2: €4.98 - 100 bb
      MP3: €7.40 - 148 bb
      CO: €5.00 - 100 bb
      BU: €5.48 - 110 bb
      SB: €2.52 - 50 bb
      BB: €5.00 - 100 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.508.2

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:spade: , Q:diamond:
      SB posts small blind (€0.02), Hero posts big blind (€0.05), UTG2 folds, UTG3 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises for €0.50, 3 folds, Hero calls, UTG3 calls, MP2 folds

      Flop: (€1.57 - 31.40 bb) 8:spade: , 7:heart: , 7:spade: (3 Players)
      Hero bets €1, UTG3 folds, MP3 calls

      Turn: (€3.57 - 71.40 bb) 6:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero ???

      -----

      MP3 was 15/13/9 over 273.

      PREFLOP
      I want to let the fish in (UTG3).

      FLOP
      Donk betting into the fish for value.
      I would call a shove from either of those guys though I would struggle with MP3 (would check out his timing as well - fold to insta shove).

      TURN
      Do I ship it for value vs lower PPs or what?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      Hi.

      Preflop: Calling is fine. The guy raising it up to 10bb looks really strong and besides we want to let the fish in.

      Flop: I think leading is good with a fish in the hand

      Turn: Let's see how you are faring vs a calling range

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8s7h7s6s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 52.01% 50.99% 1.02% { 88+, AsKs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, JsTs }
      MP3 47.99% 46.97% 1.02% { QdQs }

      Looks like you do not have enough to value shove here with <50% equity. I would check and decide on whether to call or fold. Calling can't be too bad if he shoves all hands I put in the equity calculation above. But realistically speaking his shoving range when checked to should be tighter than his range for calling.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8s7h7s6s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 67.80% 66.33% 1.47% { JJ+, 88, AsKs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, JsTs }
      MP3 32.20% 30.72% 1.47% { QdQs }

      It's really close though, I think you are getting around 33% pot odds (close to a pot size bet left on the Turn)
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      So if we can check/call wouldn't it be better to ship as it's more likely that he calls with a wider range in that case?

      In your evaluations we get value mostly from JJ, J:sT and OPs without a . By shipping we may get some FE vs KK/AA without a . Also, I'm not sure if he would go for such big flop raise with JT so it's 1 less combo and less equity. Therefore, I think check/folding is better than check/calling.

      Also, if he checks back and the river is a blank, do we value bet? I went for a 1 EUR bet/fold.

      Thanks for the help!
      David
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      well if you are not a favourite vs a calling range, then technically you cannot shove for value. SO your only option is to check. Then you decide whether you have enough odds to call or not.

      This could even be a check/fold but if villain is shoving wide enough you are probably forced to call. Also, he could have the occasional float or bluff here which I did not take into account in my calculations. Maybe villain has JT or 56s here? Who knows?

      So yes, I think it could be a c/f. As played, I think your line to b/f 1 EUR is fine. We should get looked up by worse often enough.