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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 KQo BvB turn float fails

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      CO: $50 (100 bb)
      BTN: $20 (40 bb)
      SB: $61.78 (123.6 bb)
      Hero (BB): $60.42 (120.8 bb)
      UTG: $78.29 (156.6 bb)
      MP: $43.19 (86.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K Q
      4 folds, SB raises to $1.25, Hero calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.50) 3 8 3 (2 players)
      SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.50) 4 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.85, SB calls $3.85

      River: ($13.20) 5 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB folds


      postflop stats

      SB is one of the better LAGs on the limit.
      90% SB steal, 92% flop cbet, so his range will still be super-wide on the turn.

      But I defend pretty wide BB vs SB (45%), and I dont fold that much vs flop cbets (45%), so he could know that my range will also be wide on the turn, so he could defend light with ch/calling (all pairs plus even Ace highs). And my river aggression is not too high (25%), so I thought if I bet big on the river, he will have a hard time calling with the weaker part of his range (Ax/4x/66/77).

      What do you think about this line? And if I take it, should my river overbet be bigger?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: I will 3bet this really often vs someone opening so wide. He folds a lot to 3bets though so I think calling is fine and just make your entire 3bet range air until he adjusts.

      Flop: Definitely a call here - KQ is ahead of a 90% range on this low board.

      Board: 8s3c3h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 53.61% 51.62% 1.99% { KQs, KQo }
      MP3 46.39% 44.40% 1.99% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 93o+, 84o+, 74o+, 64o+, 53o+ }

      I really don't see the need to turn KQ into a bluff - It's like Ace high in other situations (like A5 on TT3r vs a 60% opening range for example).

      About the River: Very dependent on your image, but you can pot it, or 1.5X pot it. You don't rep much but his range is super weak anyway.