[NL2-NL10] poker is a cruel game

    • shero1910
      shero1910
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2012 Posts: 122
      iPoker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (UTG): 103.5 BB
      UTG+1: 166.5 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 26)
      UTG+2: 148.5 BB (VPIP: 16.80, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 127)
      MP: 199 BB (VPIP: 17.58, PFR: 2.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 93)
      MP+1: 14 BB (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 2.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
      CO: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
      BTN: 115.5 BB (VPIP: 15.58, PFR: 10.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 78)
      SB: 102 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      BB: 52.5 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 12)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:club: K:spade:

      Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) J:club: Q:spade: K:diamond:
      Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB, MP raises to 19 BB, BTN raises to 57 BB, Hero raises to 95 BB, MP raises to 133 BB, BTN calls 55.5 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

      Turn: (336 BB, 3 players) K:heart:

      River: (336 BB, 3 players) 8:diamond:

      Hero shows K:club: K:spade: (Four of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 55%, Flop 24%, Turn 100%)
      MP shows J:heart: J:diamond: (Full House, Jacks full of Kings) (Pre 18%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
      BTN shows T:diamond: A:diamond: (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 27%, Flop 71%, Turn 0%)
      Hero wins 291.5 BB
      MP wins 22.5 BB


      is it at all possible to fold the all ins on the flop with top set even with such an obvious straight possible?
  • 1 reply
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      first things first - you absolutely should bet the flop.
      there are SO many twopair and pair+straightdraw hands out there and quite a lot of turns that put in a 4-straight to the board (about 1/3 of the deck), you can't really afford to slowplay.


      about the flop decision as played - it's kind of sick but no, you can't really fold top set here. you have some equity against straights and you crush everything else.
      as long as they can have lower sets you can't get away (this is a quite pessimistic scenario not including any two pairs and including all ATo)

      Board: J:club: Q:spade: K:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    32.15%  31.81%   0.33% { KsKc }
      MP3    33.93%  23.14%  10.79% { QQ-JJ, ATs, T9s, ATo }
      BU     33.93%  23.14%  10.79% { QQ-JJ, ATs, T9s, ATo }