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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 A7s

    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,289
      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (MP): $58.62 (117.2 bb)
      UTG: $125.40 (250.8 bb)
      CO: $34.21 (68.4 bb)
      BTN: $50.50 (101 bb)
      BB: $52.89 (105.8 bb)
      SB: $50.44 (100.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A 7
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($5.25) 8 T J (3 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $9.50, Hero calls $6

      Turn: ($24.25) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $11, Hero calls $11

      River: ($46.25) 8 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $28.50 and is all-in, Hero folds

      CO: 60+ fish
      BTN: http://pbrd.co/119ACET

      What is the best play here? Don't think he will bluffraise this board, he doesn't raise much anyway, so I expected no FE, can we call here oop? Our equity is good, but not good enough against his broke range I think. Can we raise on the turn, try to rep a 9x ? Or just call because of the odds, not sure if he bet/fold with a set, doesn't make sense to me, he has to bet/call if he choose to bet, otherwise just chb.
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey D,

      This is a pretty standard spot to 3bet and get it in because against a lot of his range, your gutshot is live but it will lack playability. You have monster equity on the flop against his range, you are at 45% or so and with the money already in the pot, getting it in is better instead of calling and having a huge equity drop on a lot of turns.
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,289
      I don't think we have that much against his range. What do you think about this? Oh, and he raises IP vs flop cbet only 3%, but it's not shown on the main popup, so IP he likes to call more and not raise for thin value with let's say AJ.


      Board: 8:diamond: T:club: J:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    37.64%  36.55%   1.09% { Ac7c }
      MP3    62.36%  61.27%   1.09% { JJ-TT, 88, Q9s, JTs, T8s, 97s, KcQc, 9c8c }
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      He plays on the looser side so IP with the fish I can definitely see the hand types you gave him but I think you missed a few..


      Board: J:club: T:club: 8:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.33%  38.33%   1.00% { Ac7c }
      MP3    60.67%  59.66%   1.00% { JJ-TT, 88, Q9s, JTs, J8s, T8s, 97s, KcQc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Qc8c, 9c8c }




      Mostly, if he has Q9s, he has Q8cc as well in his range and hands like that. My equity fr you was a bit off because your gutshot is not as clean as I initially thought, however, the best EV play is still to stack off once you invested so much and you can still have some folding equity. With an approximately 40% equity against all his range, possibly folding equity (though very unlikely, I agree) it's hard to call OOP to fold turns since you never get the odds to really call without implied odds for 2 obvious draws.