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[NL20-NL50] QJo top2 vs. river min raise

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Silver
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $39.37 (196.8 bb)
      CO: $21.77 (108.9 bb)
      BTN: $5.33 (26.7 bb)
      SB: $25.33 (126.7 bb)
      Hero (BB): $20.30 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J:heart: Q:club:
      MP folds, CO calls $0.20, BTN calls $0.20, SB folds, Hero checks

      Flop: ($0.70) Q:diamond: J:diamond: 9:club: (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.60, CO calls $0.60, BTN folds

      Turn: ($1.90) 2:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, CO calls $2

      River: ($5.90) 5:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4, CO raises to $8, Hero folds

      41/0 26% agg.freq. 159 hands.

      Should i bet bigger on the river? I guess he won`t fold Qx/2 pairs to a bigger bet?

      min raise river = nuts = fold?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      Preflop: I think not raising this is a huge mistake. This guy is so bad and loose - It'll be great to raise it up for value and for isolation purposes. Definitely going to be way easier to play in a Headsup pot.

      Flop: Now my plan would be to bet pretty close to pot on all 3 streets

      River: Wow this is sick. I'm definitely not folding a set here. With top two it's close.

      Odds: 4/22 = ~18%

      He's gonna have many straights but I do think it's a call if he plays enough worse two pairs this way.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: QdJd9c2h5c
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 19.15% 14.89% 4.26% { QcJh }
      MP3 80.85% 76.60% 4.26% { JJ, 99, KTs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, T8s, KTo, QJo, Q9o, T8o }

      I discounted J9 combos by only putting in J9s and not J9o. That leaves us with 19% equity and maybe we can factor in a rare random bluff with a busted flushdraw or something maybe 2-3% of the time.

      It's kind of close, I think either folding or calling is fine but leaning towards a call. I'm definitely folding hands worse than QJ though and I think 22 is a snap call.
    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Silver
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Originally posted by mbml
      Preflop: I think not raising this is a huge mistake. This guy is so bad and loose - It'll be great to raise it up for value and for isolation purposes. Definitely going to be way easier to play in a Headsup pot.
      Hi!

      BTN was 61/11 over 41 hands, aggressive postflop. I think that CO will call and BTN will also call or even shove. If they both call, i wouldn`t be able to bluff with BTN in the hand. If BTN had a bigger stack or if i had position, i would definitely raise. This is probably the strongest hand i`m checking.

      Does this make sense or you still prefer to raise preflop?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      you got a point about BU being short - Didn't notice that. Would definitely be a raise here if he were 100bb.

      I still prefer raising anyway. He has 60% of hands here. Even if he shoves, we either
      -Have a lot of equity, more than enough to call it off
      -Run into a strong range, but that's going to happen really rarely cos he plays just way too many hands preflop