Random card generators AUDITED?!

    • Paddii
      Paddii
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 37
      Hey guys how is everyone?

      I just want to start out by saying i love poker and that this isn't something i started to hate on the game, i play $0.10/$0.25 PLO rush/zoom, which is in itself can be a swingy game but is very beatable.

      I'm sure this type of thing has been posted many times by people who have had a bad beat put on them or run bad for a prolonged period of time and simply believe the game to be rigged.

      Right now i don't know what to think, all poker sites at the end of the day are business's and are there to make money, but of course with no players there would be money, so to say the game is rigged i think is incorrect, flawed is maybe a better word perhaps.

      Below I came across this quote while searching for stats and its what spurred me on to write this;

      ''it isn’t that these sites are rigged…
      they just don’t work, they are in fact a complete disaster
      if a large scale audit was even done it would end this industry the second the results came in, and that is why it has never been done''

      Of course not everyone will agree with the above sentiment, nor do i know if it is entirely correct, but i do think its something worth pursuing, at the end of the day we are at the mercy of the Poker industry to trust that where we play is safe and that the software is 100% perfect.

      We are reassured that our money is safe, which is important, but if instance 70/30 flips are deviating from what they should be to something outside the margin of error, how would that make you feel? Realistically it will never be spot on, there will be some small deviation over a large enough sample. I am not 100% about this next bit but i think the normal deviation over large enough sample of hands is very small, only 0.8% for Hold 'em, I was told that by a friend so not sure where or how he worked that out but i'm sure someone on here will know.

      The reason i gave the example is because as i mentioned earlier I play PLO, so sometimes i have to put the money in on the flop to defend against draws and if i'm called i'm still way ahead and will be profitable long term but the fact remains if the deviation is larger (+ or -) than expected it will affect profit. Deviation may differ from game to game but its something that i think that people need to know about.

      Sorry this is turning into a bit of a rant but if all sites where audited and you found out that the best hand won 5% less on stars than on Full Tilt, you'd play there, to be right, all card rooms should have to use the same card generator.

      So if anyone would like to share their opinions or knows where i can find some stats for random card generators on Pokerstars/Tull Tilt ect i'd be very interested to hear from you :)
  • 12 replies
    • Justin37
      Justin37
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2009 Posts: 445
      been playing micro for 3 yrs... This is what i experienced

      1. Premiun HAND AA and KK CANT always win...
      *Just lost my AK to A8 few mins ago... big pot, n does not make sense he called my all in, in real poker world. However in micro, anything is POSSIBLE.

      2. More or less Lucky hand play more vital role than skills

      3. In the LONG RUN solid player always outrun lucky, fish or donkey players :) . The problem is how long is your Bank ROLL can take it?

      I play 0.10 - $1.50 table, cash or MTT or STT with over 50% ROI at the moment.
    • Paddii
      Paddii
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 37
      Hey Justin thanks for the feedback, i agree with everything you say, the best hand hand can't win every time this much is true, we have to get get swallowed up by the fishies some of the time lol.

      My issue is the lack of solid evidence to show that the card generators are working efficiently for the players.

      I copied this off of a site which has analysed 1,360,000 hands. This is what they had to say:

      We have been monitoring all-in situations at PokerStars.com for the past year and we have come to the conclusion that the games at this site are unfair and biased toward poor play. Read on to see our methodology.

      How we tracked it:
      By using 15 different computers running PokerStars software and each monitoring five tournament tables at once, we were able to isolate nearly 1.4 million hands where two or more players were all in against each other preflop. These hands were then grouped into three categories: 80/20 (i.e. pair vs. pair), 70/30 (i.e. AK vs. AQ), and 60/40 (i.e. JT vs. 45). We broke these matchups down and analyzed each. After reviewing all hands, we would expect the higher of two pocket pairs to hold up 81% of the time and tie about 0.5%. We would expect a high card hand matching neither of the opponent's cards to hold up roughly 59% of the time, with about 1.1% ending in a tie. Finally, we would expect dominating hands to win 71% of the time with 1.1% ending in a tie. The margin of error for win percentages is +- 1.7%.

      The results:
      In coinflip situations PokerStars worked out as expected, with a tiny advantage to the pocket pair of roughly 1.5%.
      In 60/40 situations PokerStars worked out roughly as expected, favoring the weaker hand only .8% more often than expected, well within our margin of error.
      In 80/20 situations we saw a little bit of deviation. The smaller pocket pair actually won 26.3% of the time, and the higher pair winning only 72.7% of the time. This is a well outside of our margin of error by nearly triple!
      In 70/30 situations things get even worse. The lesser of the two hands wins a whopping 41% of the time, a full 10% more than it should! With more than 475,000 hands to analyze, this is more than a simple statistical anomaly. This is downright fradulent.
    • Paddii
      Paddii
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 37
      Could everyone please sign this petition to carry out a full audit of online poker sites.

      https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/british-government-carry-out-a-full-audit-of-online-poker-sites#share

      Fairness and equality for everyone.
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Looks like you managed to stumble upon this site: http://fuckpokerstars.com/

      No offense, but that site is pretty much a joke. Relying on information from that site isn't something you want to do, especially not the emails section (though it has some pretty hilarious content!). In all honesty, that site is a big joke. Someone just had too much time on their hands and decided to ''prove" that online poker is rigged.

      There is no reason not to assume random number generators do what they are supposed to do: generate random numbers which correspond to cards. While their are hardly any truly perfect random number generators, if any at all, if there is some margin of error it will be very marginal. You can expect every card to have the same change of being dealt as any other.

      Is online poker rigged/flawed? Most likely, the answer is no. If you have enough skill, you will be able to outplay the fish. Sure they'll get their lucky breaks, but so will you. In the end a flip is just a flip: both players will win 50% of the time in the long run, not one 55% of the time and the other 45% of the time.

      If you still insist the information on that site is trustworthy, take a look at the email section. Honestly, relying on this site for solid information is like relying on waterboat's strategies to be a winning poker player.

      Though one could argue he might suggest a perfect strategy, inducing misclicks is one of the coolest strategies I've ever seen :coolface:


      All joking aside, unless someone can prove from the code of the RNG itself that something's wrong, I'm not going to buy it. Rather than focusing on whether or not the game is rigged is a silly thing to do imo. Just play your game, study your game, improve your game, etc. That way there's plenty of room to be profitable.

      There's probably a reason most of the people complaining about online poker being rigged are losing players...

      Not necessarily saying you are a losing player, but this is generally the case. It's either losing players that make these comments, or guys that are just tilting because they lost a few unlucky hands.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      to be fair, the over 1m hands analysis originates from http://www.stinkingcool.com/ afaik (fuckpokerstars straight away copied it from there)

      is it "rigged" in any way? it could be, we might never know. i think it's at least fair enough to me.

      on online petitions, to cut it right to the point... they suck and no one cares.
      if you want to get something going, try to get a lot of people (and a lot of hands) and hire some lawyers to get some action going live or something.
    • progPoquer
      progPoquer
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.07.2011 Posts: 279
      where is all that analysis published?
      Post the link to that investigation.

      Who says that 1 and a half million hands is enough?

      Do you use some statistics program such a as Hold em Manager o Pokertracker? you have a good amount of information to analyze how the cards are being dealt to you, but you need a huge sample data.
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      to be fair, the over 1m hands analysis originates from http://www.stinkingcool.com/ afaik (fuckpokerstars straight away copied it from there)
      Thanks for that. Didn't know that.

      Another site to visit if I want to have some laughs :f_biggrin:

      on online petitions, to cut it right to the point... they suck and no one cares.
      if you want to get something going, try to get a lot of people (and a lot of hands) and hire some lawyers to get some action going live or something.
      I'll have to agree with this. Something like this is just bound to fail.

      So unless someone is willing to spend a crapload of money on this, such an investigation is most likely never going to happen.
    • progPoquer
      progPoquer
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.07.2011 Posts: 279
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      to be fair, the over 1m hands analysis originates from http://www.stinkingcool.com/ afaik (fuckpokerstars straight away copied it from there)

      is it "rigged" in any way? it could be, we might never know. i think it's at least fair enough to me.

      on online petitions, to cut it right to the point... they suck and no one cares.
      if you want to get something going, try to get a lot of people (and a lot of hands) and hire some lawyers to get some action going live or something.
      That two sites are epic!

      lol
    • Paddii
      Paddii
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 37
      Hey TinoLaan, yeah the content is quite hilarious, but at the same time its easy to take something and belittle it and make fun and see it as a joke. But there is a point to be made, do we want fair play? thats my only real issue.

      Nobody seen black friday coming unless they were connected, that has made me lose some faith in the game and the people behind it.

      Tomaloc, Fair enough doesnt quite cut it to be honest. if you're all in EV is 2-3% lower than it should be over a substantial number of hands, its not really good enough.

      I would just like to point out that at no time have i made any claim that any site has a faulty RNG i just havent been shown any proof that states otherwise. i have emailed full tilt. they sent me a link to their page. it was a statement that they were GLI tested but no actual figures.

      Hence why i posted here looking for answers?
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      well yeah, i agree that if i am losing (or winning) 2-3% more than i should that's bad, but i don't have anywhere near a substantial number of hands to make any claim either way. :f_biggrin:

      i am also not claiming that sites have or don't have faulty rng, obv poker companies aren't any kind of holy entity, but i personally don't find it something worth worrying about because there's pretty much nothing that i can do about it and i don't play for a living.
      thankfully, though, there are a lot of people that actively worry about that so i hope they get somewhere :D
    • Paddii
      Paddii
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 37
      I don't play for a living either, but if i did i would rather play live i think, at least i could berate the dealer about their bad dealing lol. I started playing more regularly recently when tilt gave me diamond status to reeel me back in, Iv already made my deposit in rake this week so i'm free rolling but that's another blog :)
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      and have effective variance be much higher due to the much lower volume you can get... live is obviously more +EV though if you have the monies, the nerves to withstand the variance and don't get bored.

      on the thread subject here's another pretty know page http://www.ispokerrigged.com/