Restraining from moving up due to low winrate

    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      I've been playing on NL25 for 3 months now and, according to bankroll management rules, I've profited enough to move up to NL50.

      However, I'm a bit reticent about moving up. My winrate just seems so low when compared to the limits I played before. Here are my winrates, grouped by stakes:
      NL5: 7.46 (6,204 hands)
      NL10: 8.22 (38,370 hands)
      NL25: 2.02 (72,305 hands)

      I feel like I've been very unlucky, and this may be affecting my winrate. But at the same time, I don't know if I'm focusing only on the hands I had bad luck, and forgetting about the ones I got lucky.

      I was confident in my game, but the fact that I'm not making a good profit out of NL25 makes me wonder if I have what it takes to beat the next limit. At the same time, I really want to move up and take my game to the next level.

      What do you think? Should I move up or I will be crushed at NL50?
      Can you estimate a reasonable winrate at NL25 a player should have, in order to be a profitable player at NL50?
      Maybe you tell me about your own personal experience?

      Thanks :f_biggrin:
  • 7 replies
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      There is so much luck in poker you shouldn't use your win-rate as a barometer on when to move up
    • Gnama
      Gnama
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.11.2011 Posts: 61
      Why don't you take some shots NL50 and then reevaluate the situation after a few weeks? You'll see if you're good enough to compete at this stake and you'll be able to work on your leaks if you see that you're not ready for NL50.

      Good luck! :)
    • yougotfelted51
      yougotfelted51
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      what site(s) are you playing on?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      play another 1-2 months at nl25, and see if you can beat them. of course WR is going to be a more "objective" way to evaluate your relative skill but sometimes you just know when your opponents are far inferior to you (if you are constantly owning them with bluffs or if they are making stupid call downs)
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Don't see much point in moving up if you aren't confident that you are a top tier regular at your current stakes.

      As for reasonable winrate, hard to say, maybe something like 6bb+/100 or so, but if you are working on your game you won't be able to tell your true winrate before moving up anyway.
    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      [quote]Originally posted by JCSeerup
      There is so much luck in poker you shouldn't use your win-rate as a barometer on when to move up[/QUOTE]

      Hehe, loved it :s_biggrin:

      Thanks for all your inputs.

      You're right NightFrostaSS, I don't feel like I'm in the top tier of NL25. As mbml suggested, I'll play 1 more month (which means around 10k hands for me) and then I'll re-evaluate my situation.

      yougotfelted51, I'm only playing at PokerStars.
    • yougotfelted51
      yougotfelted51
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      i play on pokerstars as well. i found the toughest limit jump so far being nl25 to nl50.

      i would make sure you are very comfortable at NL25 before moving up. seems like you are making a great decision