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Very important question is 55% win profit in long run?

    • thirit2
      thirit2
      Basic
      Joined: 19.10.2012 Posts: 120
      I have 55% heads up win but I play 5$ heads up sng's actually buy in is 5.30$ every game I pay 30 cent fee, is it profitable if I win 55% of the time?
  • 8 replies
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      http://www.ixl.com/math/kindergarten
    • vuciitis
      vuciitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 1,324
      should be 20$ profit on 100 games if im not mistaken...
    • toholdem
      toholdem
      Basic
      Joined: 27.03.2012 Posts: 19
      "I have 55% heads up win but I play 5$ heads up sng's actually buy in is 5.30$ every game I pay 30 cent fee, is it profitable if I win 55% of the time?" - thirit2

      Hello. Vuciitis, one of us is way off and it's probably me because it's late and I'm tired and prone to mistakes right now.

      %55 win rate [ assuming 1 loss = ($5.30) and 1 win = $9.70 ]:

      55 wins and 45 losses ...

      55 Wins = $533.50 ...

      45 Losses = ($238.50).

      $533.50 - $238.50 = $295.00 profit out after 100 matches, so it's like making about $2.95 per HUSnG.

      I think I may have screwed up the original inputs because I double and triple checked the math itself. Where am I going wrong in the procedure above?
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Silver
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by toholdem
      "I have 55% heads up win but I play 5$ heads up sng's actually buy in is 5.30$ every game I pay 30 cent fee, is it profitable if I win 55% of the time?" - thirit2

      Hello. Vuciitis, one of us is way off and it's probably me because it's late and I'm tired and prone to mistakes right now.

      %55 win rate [ assuming 1 loss = ($5.30) and 1 win = $9.70 ]:

      55 wins and 45 losses ...

      55 Wins = $533.50 ...

      45 Losses = ($238.50).

      $533.50 - $238.50 = $295.00 profit out after 100 matches, so it's like making about $2.95 per HUSnG.

      I think I may have screwed up the original inputs because I double and triple checked the math itself. Where am I going wrong in the procedure above?
      1x win = $10 (2x $5) = $4.70 profit < 2x .30c rake is not in prize pool.

      100 games @ 55% = $258.50 - $238.50 = $20 profit = $0.20 per game = 3.77% ROI
    • unshpe
      unshpe
      Basic
      Joined: 20.05.2013 Posts: 294
      1) Winrate = 55%
      2) 5$+0.3$ buyin assumed

      EV = (0.55 * 4.7$ ) + [0.45 * (-5.3$)] = 2.585$ - 2.385$ = 0.2$

      This means you make 0.2$ per SNG
    • unshpe
      unshpe
      Basic
      Joined: 20.05.2013 Posts: 294
      By the way, does anyone have any winrates/ROIs for different HU turbo stakes?

      Thanks !
    • toholdem
      toholdem
      Basic
      Joined: 27.03.2012 Posts: 19
      Thanks jonnyjm, for that ROI calculation and illustrating my mistake too. I can't believe I missed something that easy; I should've seen right off the bat that 1 win equals $4.70 instead of $9.70.

      unshpe - don't quote me on it because I just remember seeing it in passing, but I read of ROI's for HU turbos of around %3-%6. I can't remember which stakes they were for though, as I was looking for regular speed winrates at the time.
    • martoman2k10
      martoman2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.08.2010 Posts: 669
      HUSNG is the same as DONs in terms of winrate. You either win or you lose.

      Here's a link to a DoN ROI chart which works just as well for HUSNGs - you work out your ROI based on winrate and rake percentage.



      6% rake, which is what 30 cents is, would give you 3.8% ROI with a 55% winrate.