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Is it possible that using stats isn't good for me?

    • Deomedes
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      Well, i was away from poker for a while but the last 20days i got back into playing.

      I started with my regular NL10 6max games but i wanted to try once more some fast fold poker mostly because it was some Pleno1's vids that got me back into playing :D .

      Till then I had only play FastFold a little with no success or interest on it. My stats and reads were to valuable for me to leave them back since my pokertracker 3 does not support FastForward on Party.

      So i said that i am going to play as theoriticaly and aggressive as possible use stack sizes , country , betting lines-sizes only as reads, colour code fast (a limp and a green!) and take notes.

      I played with some big success for a while but the think is that after a while i missed the good old days with my hud so i installed pokertracker 4 to give it a try.

      The results now were not at all good. My red line went down as it was before on my regular tables (around -7bb) and i had to be lucky to turn a profit.

      My graph was this with no hud

      with that bell curve

      With hud

      Did i felt back to the old habits, did my opponents adjust to my aggressive style, is it variance ?

      One leak i have and i know about it, is that i use stats that haven't convert sometimes and especially when i have little time to react/think.

      So yes i do overuse them in situations that the board or the betting line/size are better info.

      PS. I might be playing NL10 but i have studied a lot so do not start saying "you do not know what stats mean or how to use them". It might look that way but it is going to be little unfair to be called fish that easily.
  • 3 replies
    • metza
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      I would say given the sample sizes it is more likely to be just variance, running good first 20k hands and bad or average in the next 20k.

      One key difference that it seems from the graphs is an apparent significant drop in aggression which I am assuming based on redline difference. Perhaps some stats lead you to be less likely to bluff people eg. seeing someone plays 12/9 you might say "oh well their range is pretty strong so I shouldn't bluff them often" when actually they might be playing nitty postflop also and fold often to barrels, and normally you would just play aggro vs them without a HUD but a correct interpretation of one stat (low VPIP/PFR = strong range) might be leading to plays with lower EV than if you didn't have the stats. It really depends on what stats you're using, if you look at street specific ones eg Fold to Flop Cbet etc. I'd say this wouldn't be the case.

      Hard to say, more stats such as VPIP/PFR/3bet especially positional would help.
    • martinstids
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 284
      I would also say its just a variance..
    • Deomedes
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      Stats before the use of a hud and afterwards.

      _______________________ Before _______ Afterwards
      VPIP/ PFR_________________ 27/23 ______ 25/21
      TAfq/ TAF _______________ 53/2.7______ 53/2.8
      CCPF/ 3betPF______________ 9.6/7.5 ______ 7.3/7
      BTN Steal/ CO steal _________ 82/35 ______ 80/38
      FCbet/ TCbet _______________70/35 _______ 62/45
      WTSD/ W$SD ______________ 27/55 _______ 27/54
      W$WSF __________________ 50.6 ________ 49.6