my winrate AK,QQ preflop allin

    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      basically, with this hand, should I win?

      I'm apprentice about data analysis.
      I know against 5 % pfr , I shouldn't 3b AK,QQ.

      I'm losing with QQ,AK about -220bb/100hands.

      sample is 100000 hands.

      Is it evidence for rig, or it's still " variance"?
  • 9 replies
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      JJ rate -1024bb/100 hand

      sample 100000 hands

      important fact

      I'm playing MSS
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      my stats
      VPIP13 PFR 10.6 3b 6~7

      against 6~7 range(it's total range so I have 10% at sb vs BTN), every guys defend only AA,KK so I'm losing?

      I never think so.

      I always check ft3b and 4b percentage so I didn't 3b/shove against nit too much time.
    • metza
      metza
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      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Gonchan
      basically, with this hand, should I win?

      I'm apprentice about data analysis.
      I know against 5 % pfr , I shouldn't 3b AK,QQ.

      I'm losing with QQ,AK about -220bb/100hands.

      sample is 100000 hands.

      Is it evidence for rig, or it's still " variance"?
      Sample is not 100000 hands. You might have 100k hands total, but probably only a couple of thousand of these are all in preflop w QQ/AK

      Also, you forget the fact that you win money when you 3bet and opponent folds, and also when they call your 3bet with worse and it doesn't go all in preflop. Getting it all in pre is not where the overall money is for these hands, even though you often should be getting it in with these hands. Often, but not always, especially at the lowest micros where stackoff ranges are very tight for regulars.

      You say you know against 5% prf you shouldn't 3b AK/QQ, but you must also consider positional ranges. Someone might be a maniac from the cutoff/button, giving them a high PFR, but if their UTG PFR is very tight and you only look at overall PFR you will incorrectly 3bet AK/QQ vs their UTG open.
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
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      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      I don't think you're supposed to win when you get called.

      Most people have a calling range of QQ+ AK.

      Vs such a range your AK/QQ have only about 40% equity. So when you do get called you are supposed to be about -2000bb/100 (Assuming 100 BB effective stack and QQ+, AK callin range everytime)

      So -220bb/100 isn't too bad actually. Seems like there are a significant number of fishes calling you with worse.

      I'm not sure if 100k is a big enough sample (I assume you mean 100k hands in total, not 100k hands of AK/QQ all in pre)

      Most of the money you win by shoving pre are through folds from 4bet bluffs/ fish calling with a weak range. It's probably not super +EV shoving AK/QQ (because you're usually behind when called). I'm not too sure though.

      If you are a losing with ALL your QQ/AK hands then there is a problem (run bad or play bad)

      edit: Just seen that you're playing MSS. That changes things a little bit I guess. I'm not to sure about MSS
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      AK vs AA,KK preflop allin

      23 hand per 125 hand win or draw 3

      AA,KK vs AK

      3.1 1.1 1.0 13.4 1.0 3.1

      22 hand per 146 win or draw 7

      AA,KK vs AK win rate 4:1

      is it also " variance"?
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      metza

      I always check ovarall pfr and UTG pfr.

      There are many guys who open 5% UTG and btn 20%.
      I always chech this fact

      Mathmatically, there was not many guys who only shove QQ,AK against MSS( I think if he had this range, 4b stats should be 4or 4.5 percent, and I can allin with JJ+,AK)

      tommygecko

      There was many guys 4bet/shove 98o,ATs,Q8s, so QQ,AK is super tight I think.

      and my AK vs AA,KK result is much worse than my AA,KK vs AK result.

      Is there anyone who know variance?I'm analysis apprentice.
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      PS

      for example, I have 10% 3b range, villain can value 4b with 88+,AQ+

      even 5% range, they can value 4b with JJ,AK

      So I never think they often defend only AK,QQ.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Gonchan
      PS

      for example, I have 10% 3b range, villain can value 4b with 88+,AQ+

      even 5% range, they can value 4b with JJ,AK

      So I never think they often defend only AK,QQ.
      remember that vs 88+,AQ+, your AK is still a slight dog.
      Vs JJ+,AQs+,AKo, your QQ is a slight dog (though I assume vs MSS most people get it in lighter than this so QQ should be up in the long run, if not you're either unlucky, or not getting called enough/not getting 4bet wide enough (the last two of which result in profit for you))

      If you have around 48% equity this results in approx. -100bb/100 when you have a 50bb stack.

      If hypothetically you are running your (AK/QQ) into (TT+,AQs+) then you're ~44% which should be around -300bb/100. But if you 3bet 10% and still only 4bet by TT+,AQs+ then your profit comes from them folding to your 3bets too often.

      The value in these hands comes from the fold equity you gain when your opponent does not call or calls and folds postflop, not in getting called all in preflop, though you still have to be getting it in with AK,QQ pre unfortunately, because the dead money involved in 3/4betting prices you in.

      Also remember that 4bet stats take a big hand sample before they accurately reflect opponents range.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
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      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey Gonchan

      I moved your thread to the no limit forums.

      Regards

      RasTweet