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15 outs?

    • Petrificus
      Joined: 18.02.2008 Posts: 394
      Hand 1
      MP2: $50,00
      Hero: $47,50

      0,25/0,50 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:club: , K:club:
      MP2 calls, Hero raises to $2,50, 4 folds, MP2 calls.

      Flop: ($5,75) 2:heart: , 5:club: , 9:club: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $5, Hero??

      a) Raise to ~20$/Fold to Push
      b) Call/Raise Turn bei Hit
      c) Push AI
      d) Raise to ~20$/Call AI

      I found this hand ín a german article about big pairs and big draws. They say, that the best line to play it is raise to 20$/call AI, because with this big hand they want to play a big pot. In their opinion they have in most of the cases all 15 outs, but i'm not sure about that. I mean which hand would he donk with except a set? Against a set we only have 8 outs and are behind.
      My line would probably be call flop//fold turn unimproved.
      What do you say?

      (There were no stats)
  • 1 reply
    • TribunCaesar
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Hi Petrificus,

      this is definitely a big draw and you play it raise/push. We don't know anything about the opponent so we can't say what hands he is playing like that. And even if we would know he is a good tag his range is wider than just sets. He can donk with and any pair/draw or even air. We dominate any other flush draw, so we should be happy to get it in. We have tons of outs against just a pair and still a lot outs against 2 pairs or sets. Against a set we still have 25%, but I doubt he always have the set. Pretty easy raise/shove with such a hand.

      Best regards,