[NL2-NL10] NL25 SSS:AJ reraised

    • Termi8r
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      Should have folded but this guy is very loose and has a wide range. But still a fold imo. Comments?

      Known players:

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.58 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J:club: , A:heart:
      UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, BU raises to $5.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5.00 (All-In), BU gets uncalled bet back..

      Final Pot: $10.60
  • 3 replies
    • abundance211
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 151
      1. fold AJo from middle position
      2. fold after raise to 5.00$. Left stack size:your raise ratio is 3:1 and a fold according to SHC.

      Although opponents stats are loose, I think he's got a hand. Otherwise he would only call your raise and wait to see flop and won't re-raise. From my experience at this level players are quite straight forward.

      By calling his re-raise you are wasting your money, imo.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Why did you even raise with AJ on MP and after the reraise insta fold.
    • 098799
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      First, no sample imo. 48 hands can only give us liiitle hint about how he's going to play. His actual pfr can vary from 8 to 30 I guess (at least statistics say it can). But assuming his pfr is like 20 and he's going to 3bet with 1/3 of his pfr (which is another assumption which can be wrong) you're getting about 33% equity, about the amount you need here. It looks like break-even case.

      But... our assumptions aren't surely even close to correct. Also, we didn't include the fact whether or not does he adjust to shortstackers. I think fold is surely a move with less variance and possibly bigger expected value, so it's fine.