Leaking money at showdowns

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
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      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,075
      Hello,

      This is nl20 and some nl25 hands

      checked stats and see that my W$SD is not going to 50 long time already.





      Flop fold vs cbet is bit high, but last 3600 hands its 42.5, because I was focusing on how to reduce it and did that.

      There can be various situations where I can be leaking, for example - calling in wrong spots on rivers, or bluffing unsucesfully or checking till sd.

      Can you suggest something how could I quickly fix this leak?

      And BTw when I play 28 vpip then maybe wtsd is too high and I cannot win much at showdowns?
  • 10 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Hey SPeedFANat1c,

      I don't really think this is is an issue. Playing 28/25 you should not expect to have the same W$SD as a guy playing 18/15.

      What is your showdown bb/100 over this sample and what is your non-showdown bb/100 over this sample?

      Btw, the "quick fix" is just to tighten up your preflop range.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,075
      What is your showdown bb/100 over this sample and what is your non-showdown bb/100 over this sample?


      filter only nl20 but thats almost same sample.

      2.26 eur /100 at sd = 11bb/100

      2.57 eur/100 loosing at non showdowns = -13bb/100

      Btw, the "quick fix" is just to tighten up your preflop range.


      If we look at position opens, then I think other positions are normal, SB is big but that is proably because I have stats how they fold vs SB open and they fold a lot so I open wide. And this makes probablyt my vpip high


      I don't really think this is is an issue. Playing 28/25 you should not expect to have the same W$SD as a guy playing 18/15.

      And what numbers would be optimal of wtsd/w$sd playing that loose?
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      So, your -13bb/100 non-showdown is really on the lower limit. With such a non-showdown line you'd expect to have a showdown line of around 20bb/100.

      You mention tightening up with river calls. I don't think this is the problem. Your river call efficiency is over 2 which suggests you are actually calling too tight in a lot of river spots.

      Your cbet flop and turn look normal, but again, for a guy playing much tighter. With a wider preflop range you can't expect to profitably defend the same percentage of your range as you would a tighter range. I suspect a lot of aggressive dead-money is going in on flop + turn and then losing at showdown. Cbet flop + turn should potentially be lower to reflect your wider preflop range.

      Difficult to say specifically what your W$SD should be. Different for different styles of course. Your current W$SD does not concern me though. It takes a reasonable degree of skill to play with a 10% 3bet and 28% preflop range at these stakes. I would be more concerned about how you are playing specific hands rather than focusing on a single stat.

      While potentially profitable there is really no need to play so loose at these stakes. Mainly you can just play thinking-TAG and these guys will donate. You are likely making life difficult for yourself at the moment.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,075
      actually I am not plauing that loose when I filetersd playesr 5-6. There is 32 K hands then and I am havign 26/22

      So I become loose when there is lesss players.

      When play 4handed I have 36/32 4k hands

      3 handed 48/42 1.4k hands

      HU 65/59 168 h but I try to avoid HU.

      so 26/22 is ok I guess 5-6 players.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Just making a few suggestions.

      Obviously I can't tell you exactly what is wrong with your game by looking a few stats. Also bear in mind that sample size is not overly large here. Stats will be affected by variance.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,075
      Stats will be affected by variance.


      I tried filtering by groups. From this sample I mean something like 0-10K hands, 10K-20K and so on and in all those groups w$sd is low. Which makes me believe more that its less likely variance and more bad play somewhere.

      If its variance - there should be sometimes up, not only downs. Unless there is one big down :)
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      37k is a small sample to begin with. Then there is the fact we are only considering hands that went to showdown, drastically reducing sample size.

      Just because your W$SD is below average in all groups doesn't mean it isn't just random coincidence. I could group the exact same data set differently and achieve high W$SD in some groups and low W$SD in another group.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
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      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,075
      ok. Usualy when we play - use hud and if player has about 500 hands, we already look at w$sd, so I though 37K is way more than enough :)
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      ok. Usualy when we play - use hud and if player has about 500 hands, we already look at w$sd, so I though 37K is way more than enough :)

      Yeah, normally it is ok for a rough guide. Besides we are only talking about a few percent here. It's not as if your w$SD is at 20% or something :)

      I'm sure you've probably seen with variance sim how winning player can break even over 100k hands. So your W$SD could definitely be off a few percent over 36k. Not saying it's definitely warped by variance, just saying it's a possibility.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,075
      thanks for the answers :)