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3way river bluff

    • getdotacom
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 608
      $2.50/$5 Zoom No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($1,540.46) 308bb
      UTG+1 ($500) 100bb
      HERO (CO) ($1,403.84) 281bb
      BTN ($502.50) 101bb
      SB ($511.51) 102bb
      BB ($596.14) 119bb

      Pre-Flop: ($7.50, 6 players) HERO is CO J:club: J:heart:
      UTG raises to $15, 1 fold, HERO calls $15, 2 folds, BB calls $10

      Flop: 2:spade: Q:spade: 3:heart: ($47.50, 3 players)
      BB checks, UTG bets $27.50, HERO calls $27.50, BB calls $27.50

      Turn: 7:heart: ($130, 3 players)
      BB checks, UTG checks, HERO checks

      River: A:heart: ($130, 3 players)
      BB bets $77.50, UTG calls $77.50, HERO raises to $280, BB folds, UTG calls $202.50

      Both players regs.
      BB's lead OTR makes no sense IMO, he has spades like 95% of the time. Other guy was thinking for a long time, I think he has a weak ace at best. I know we rep only something like 5-8 combos of flush, but still it was very tempting to bluff. What do u think about this and maybe we should make much larger raise, to something like $360 ? That guy was with pretty high wtsd, but I didn't check that during the hand, so larger raise makes more sense ?
  • 4 replies
    • lnternet
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      I don't agree with your assessment of BB's range.

      BB will call preflop with a good amount of Q:heart: X:heart: . He will overcall flop with all of them. He will check turn with all of them. He will bet the river with most of them.

      With spades, he may donk flop or check raise flop.

      While there is more possible spade combos than flush combos for him, I don't see him on 95% spades. I actually think he is betting well there. Maybe 2 combos of flushes, 2 straights, 2 sets, 10 2pair, and 8 bluffs. Perhaps he bets A:spade: X:spade: perhaps not.

      UT calling river looks like an Ace. I don't think he would bluffcatch a Queen and I don't think he checks a set or turned FD on the turn too often, so his most likely hand is AK.

      If you can raise river and get BB off all 2pair, it should be a good bluff. If he calls you with all AQ it's not a good bluff. So would he fold that?

      You try to rep a flush. If he has AxQ:heart: it will be easy for him to convince himself you don't rep enough flushes to snap you off. If he has AQ without the Q :heart: he will think about it pretty hard. You may very well bet turn with KQ-QT in hearts on the turn. You don't really have any other flushes. (Why you do write you have 5-8 combos of flushes? I don't see you floating flop with KJhh and then checking back turn ever.). So with AQ without the Q:heart: he may very well call, making a bluff raise bad. But if you think he folds AQ usually, then it's an alright bluff.

      I don't think raising too large without a nut blocker makes sense. As he can have the nuts of nutblockers himself, you don't want to raise too big. Now $360 is still reasonable, but don't move allin. I think I like the size you choose though. With a flush you need a call from AQ no Q:heart: and your size is really targeting that hand well.
    • booomm
      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 677
      how BB lead on river makes no sense ? he has like one mirrion flush combos in his range, what's our reads/info on BB ? fish/reg/badreg/whatver? would he be folding AQ/33/22 on this spot ?
      imo bet turn 3/4 pot and bet river big or give up given flop action.
      flop either raise small or fold btw. jamming flop could be an option in specific cases, but that's another sotry.
    • DeLau
      Joined: 10.01.2009 Posts: 1,606
      haha, saw this hand on another forum where UTG posted it. Funny to see the hand come back here from another perspective. :)
    • Itsnevereasy
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      haha, saw this hand on another forum where UTG posted it. Funny to see the hand come back here from another perspective. smile

      Post the link, would be interesting to know what the other guy thought.

      I agree with lnternet's analysis of BB's range. Also it does not seem like a good spot for BB to bluff so I would assume his range is skewed heavily towards value. To me his bet on the river does not look like spades at all, since I would have preferred to raise the flop with FL draw.

      It would surprise me if BB ended up folding AQ,straight or flush just because people don't fold these type of hands vs a confusing line, so your bluff doesn't look profitable already even if UTG folds 100% of the time.

      To top that up, UTG's hand looks a lot like AJ/AK and I don't think he is folding that either unless he perceives you as a nit/ abc reg. The reason being is that he will probably convince himself that you are repping a very small value range and like lnternet already said you might bet some flush draws on the turn.

      jamming flop could be an option in specific cases, but that's another sotry.

      Would love to hear that story! :s_love: