Implied Odds Question

    • Navrark
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Let's imagine the following scenario:

      My opponent bets the flop and I call with a flush draw. The odds to get a flush are 4:1. I have to call $0.10 into $0.23. That means I'm short $0.17. I make the call.

      So now my opponent bets on the turn after I miss my flush. He bets $0.20 into a $0.33 pot. Now I've made back the $0.17 I lost right? Or have I?

      If I want to continue now I have to call a $0.20 bet into a $0.53 pot. So if I want another try at my flush I need an $0.80 pot, so if I call now I'll be short $0.27.

      Now my question is this: Did I make back the $0.17 that I lost on the flop, when my opponent bet on the turn? or do I now have to make back $0.17 + $0.27 on the River? Or just $0.27 on the River?

  • 3 replies
    • maythany
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 1,189
      I had the exact same question and I figured it all out while I was at work. Here it is!

      Okay a flush draw is actually 1 in 3, I don't go by that type of ratio (4:1). I usually just say the chances of making a flush draw by the river is 2 to 1.

      Anyways before your opponent bets the pot is $0.13 correct? And after his bet it is now $0.23 and you must call $0.10 into a pot of $0.23.

      The chances of you hitting those 9 (clean) outs on the turn is 18%. So mathematically speaking your opponent must bet $0.03 on the flop for it to be a breakeven call. $0.16 *0.18 = $0.0288

      IDEAL POT:18% (1 in 5.55) = 5.55 X $0.0288
      = $0.15984 (pot)

      YOUR POT: $0.23

      Since you called a $0.10 bet instead of $0.03, you must make up -$0.07 (you paid $0.07 more). Now the pot is $0.33 and he bets $0.20 into it.
      Again if you called this bet you'd need to make up another -$0.15 on the river.
      IDEAL POT: 20% (1 in 5) = 5 x $0.048
      = $0.24 (pot)
      YOUR POT: $0.53

      $0.07 + 0.15 = $0.22

      In total you gotta squeeze another $0.22 - $0.23 out of your opponent for it to be breakeven overall.

      What I am trying to say is this, ideally in your situation you would've wanted your opponent to bet $0.03 instead of $0.10 on the flop to see the turn card. And you would've wanted your opponent to bet $0.05 into a now pot of $0.19 to see the river.

      But because you paid $0.07 more to see the turn card and $0.15 more to see the river card, you must now make up $0.22 - $0.23 to be breakeven.

      EDIT: This is the conclusion that I came to. If I am wrong in any way, please feel free to correct me because I am always willing to learn.

      FYI: I did 20% on river because that's the percent I got from imputing a flush draw on cardplayer's poker odds calculator.
    • Navrark
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Thanks for that detailed response! I'm glad to see you were using your work hours wisely. :s_grin:

      I hear it said so often that money in the pot already is dead money. That's the reason for my confusion. Your interpretation seems to be the most logical.

      Thanks again!
    • ThatGuyMatt
      Joined: 03.12.2010 Posts: 3,748
      Hey Guys,

      Hopefully maythany has explained it well enough for you to understand :)

      Also, have you checked out our Implied Odds article? That should clear up any confusion for you!