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[NL2-NL10] Nl2 KQ

    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP2: $1.20 (60 bb) MP2's stats:19/9/0,0/32
      MP3: $2.49 (124.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $2.37 (118.5 bb) Hero's stats 14/9/3,0/4K
      BTN: $0.91 (45.5 bb)
      SB: $2 (100 bb)
      BB: $3.43 (171.5 bb)
      MP1: $5.17 (258.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q K
      MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, MP2 calls
      $0.06

      Flop: ($0.19) Q A T (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.12, MP2 calls $0.12

      Turn: ($0.43) 8 (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.20, MP2 folds

      Results:
      $0.43 pot ($0.02 rake)
      Final Board: Q A T 8
      MP2 mucked and lost (-$0.20 net)
      Hero mucked Q K and won $0.41 ($0.21 net)




      This is my toughts when i reviewed my hand later:

      Preflop i put him on: 99-22,A9s-A2s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J8s+,T8s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,43s,32s,A9o-A2o

      On the flop:
      I put his callingrange on:
      99-22,A9s-A2s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,A9o-A2o

      Here's what i calculated in equilab:
      Flop: QhAsTh
      His callingrange has 46.90% equity
      My KQ has 53.10% equity
      So according to the percentages i should be valuebetting on the flop profitably since i'm beating his range on average?

      So whether my guess of his range was bad or not. Am i thinking right? If this range was correct guess. Should i be valuebetting here profitably?
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Hi.

      I think you misunderstood a key concept

      Villain's Flop Calling Range != Villain's PF Calling range.
      Would villain call hands like 22-99 on the Flop on this AQT board? That seems to be really unlikely.

      He's probably calling with any broadway hand, and some flush draws. That's about it. Try changing those assumptions and see how you fare.

      Flop: I would check back here btw but just do the calculations to see for yourself how you are faring.

      Thanks.
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      How can villain's flop callingrange be villains preflop callingrange? Altough my guess of range was pretty bad, let's say he was a big fish and my guess of range was pretty accurate.
      Here's his preflop callingrange: Preflop i put him on: 99-22,A9s-A2s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J8s+,T8s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,43s,32s,A9o-A2o

      Flop QhTsAh

      So how can his preflop callingrange be his flop callingrange? I doubt he would call with: T8s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,43s,32s on this board unless he has a FD. Why shouldn't i be taking away those cards?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      ???
      != means not equals to
      I'm not sure if you understood what I said.

      I'll just set villain's calling range on the Flop to AX/QX/TX, some gutshots like K7s, and flush draws. You need to specify flush draws specifically. Like 9:h7 for example. Don't include all combos of 97s here, just 9:h7 and so on.
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      So = means equal and != means not equal? If that is correct, take another look in my first post in this thread. My guessing of his preflop callingrange is != or not equal to my guessing of his postflop callingrange. Altough my guess of his range was bad, the ranges are not equal.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      yeah != is not equal in some computer programming language, can't remember what it was (C+ I think?)

      Oh yes I realize they are slightly different, just glanced through your reply quickly and thought you used the same range cos I think 22-99 is almost always folding
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      yeah != is not equal in some computer programming language, can't remember what it was (C+ I think?)

      I have no idea

      So know you know that my guessing of his preflop callingrange is different from his flop callingrange. So is my calculations in equilab right? altough my guess is bad. Have i understand the concept?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Ok your range estimation for villain is very wrong.

      But let's say your assumptions were true. Then since KQ is a 53% favourite vs villain's Flop calling range, you have a value bet here, since you are on average, a favourite when called.