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[NL2-NL10] KJs 071713

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10)
      Hero ($10.93)
      UTG ($5.69)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      UTG+2 ($14.28)
      MP1 ($10.73)
      CO ($10.56)
      BTN ($4.73)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: K:club: , UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, CO calls $0.50

      FLOP ($1.35) 4:club: 9:club: 8:heart:

      Hero bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70

      TURN ($2.75) 4:club: 9:club: 8:heart: 2:heart:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      RIVER ($2.75) 4:club: 9:club: 8:heart: 2:heart: T:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO bets $1.37, Hero folds
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      Hi.

      I would probably just barrel the Turn, even though he doesn't fold that much. You have a good amount of equity in the hand, with 9 flush outs and another 6 overcards. I bet larger on the Flop ($1) and then 3/4 pot on the Turn. You can continue firing on high card rivers like the A as a bluff.

      Thanks.
    • Jozio0506
      Jozio0506
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.07.2008 Posts: 2,128
      Do you really want to bluff three times against such enormous calling-station? He could call us with any pair.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      I do expect him to call down with 9X but I think we can fold some smaller pairs like 8X/77/66. He would also fold his busted draws as well which is great.
    • Jozio0506
      Jozio0506
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.07.2008 Posts: 2,128
      He never folds 8x here I think. His WTSD is very big. I'm not even sure if we can force lower pocket pairs to fold.
      Let's think about the possible high cards river.

      If the river is an Ace, then many of his flushdraws just got a pair, and he never folds that. And we already beat all lower flushdraws.
      If there is K or J on the river we get top pair, so we bet for value.
      Maybe we could bluff on Q, but I'm still not sure what is the percentage of better hands that fold there, it's like guessing, his range is just too random.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      high WTSD thats for sure but he does have 40% fold to River cbet. I do think he's capable of folding hands worse than 9X for sure.