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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH 96s turn spot - should I bluff raise?

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $25.72 (102.9 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
      UTG: $35.12 (140.5 bb)
      MP: $30.84 (123.4 bb)
      CO: $25.35 (101.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 9
      4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.50) A 4 J (2 players)
      SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

      Turn: ($3.50) 3 (2 players)
      SB bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

      River: ($8) Q (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB folds

      Results:
      $8 pot ($0.36 rake)
      Final Board: A 4 J 3 Q
      SB mucked and lost (-$4 net)
      Hero mucked 6 9 and won $7.64 ($3.64 net)


      SB was 30/26/10 over 28.
      AG% - 56 (60/100/0)
      CB: F - 100(3), T - 100(2).

      PREFLOP
      Standard call.

      FLOP
      I don't have a raising range in this spot and therefore decided to just float. My raise could be perceived as a bluff.

      TURN
      I think on the turn I would raise quite a few hands for value and therefore bluff raising my turned FD would be fine I think.

      RIVER
      When everything missed I must bluff here :f_biggrin: I think my sizing could be a little bit smaller (e.g. $4.25).
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Hi.

      I would just fold the Flop. Your hand is not strong enough to float here.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml,

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      I did some calculations and I have to agree that hand is not strong enough even if villain cbets 100% on this flop. This means I can fold some weak BDFDs with no BDSD (such as 96s) or weak BDSD and be still defending enough for his cbet not to be profitable.

      Thanks!
      David

      P.S. Here's my calculations (since in these calculations I defend flop too much my river betting frequency is very low as I get there with weak hands).

      PREFLOP calling range:
      TT-22,ATo-A2o,KJo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o,76o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J4s,T9s-T5s,98s-95s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s
      FLOP
      A♠ 4♥ J♦ (529 combos)
      Facing a 66.7% PSB – need to defend 60% - 529*0.6 = 317 combos (f – 212 combos)
      x/c:
      ANY PAIR (Ax, Jx, 4x)
      GUTSHOTS (KT, QT, 53)
      BDFD
      -33/22
      TOTAL: 356

      Total combos defended: 356 (67.3%).

      TURN
      A♠ 4♥ J♦ 3♥ (350 combos (-6))
      Facing a 64.1% PSB – need to defend 60.9% - 350*0.609 = 213 combos (f – 137 combos)
      x/c:
      2PAIRS+
      2ND PAIR+ (Ax, Jx)
      FD (x♥x♥)
      OESD
      TOTAL: 212

      Total combos defended: 212 (60.6%).

      RIVER
      A♠ 4♥ J♦ 3♥ Q♦ (209 combos (-3))
      PS value bets – 2 : 1 value/bluff ratio

      VALUE BETS
      STRAIGHTS KTs (1)
      SETS 44 (3)
      2PAIRS A4 (9), A3 (9), J4s (2), 43s (3), QJ (9)
      TOTAL: 36

      BLUFFS
      FD T♥x♥ - 6♥x♥ (15)
      TOTAL: 15

      Total combos bet: 51 (24.4%).
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      yep that's a really loose defend so in order to justify that, you need to have a strong read on villain (that he bets flop and check-folds turn way more than the average reg).