[NL2-NL10] Shove right? NL5 SH

    • mitjaj
      mitjaj
      Basic
      Joined: 06.07.2013 Posts: 49
      [converted_hand][hand_history]IPoker, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $5.83 (145.8 bb)
      SB: $5.82 (145.5 bb)
      BB: $10.05 (251.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7:heart: A:heart:
      Hero raises to $0.16, SB calls $0.14, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.36) Q:club: 5:heart: 6:diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25

      Turn: ($0.86) 4:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.60, Hero calls $1

      River: ($4.06) K:spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $2.03, Hero folds

      Results: $4.06 pot ($0.27 rake)
      Final Board: Q:club: 5:heart: 6:diamond: 4:heart: K:spade:
      Hero mucked 7:heart: A:heart: and lost (-$2.01 net)
      SB mucked and won $3.79 ($1.78 net)
      [/hand_history][/converted_hand]

      Should have shoved here on the turn right? I am getting some FE also right? How do I calculate it, I dont know
  • 2 replies
    • adasko99
      adasko99
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.02.2011 Posts: 2,120
      WARNING: I MIGHT BE TOTALLY WRONG WITH MY ASSUMPTIONS AND CALCULATIONS HERE :P

      If it's unknown player - we cannot asumme he's bluffing often.
      That's why I think in the best case scenario, we can put the villain on this kind of range:

      66-44,KQs,QTs+,87s,32s,KhJh,KhTh,JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,9h7h,7h6h,6h5h,KQo,QJo,87o

      On the Turn we have ~40% vs the above range which is quite a bit - you definitely cannot fold there :)

      About shoving the Turn:
      when he raised you - the pot is $3.06
      you have $4.82 behind
      if you shove, the pot would have been $7.88
      he would have needed $3.82 to call if I'm not mistaken
      so 3.82 / 7.88 = 0.48 = %48

      so, if we think about his range - he should only pass his flushdraws/straightdraws - everything else is calling.

      Not that big Fold Equity after all.

      Just calling is better here imho :)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Hi.

      Shoving is only good if you think you have FE. My basic assumption at lower limits is that people's Turn raising ranges are generally filled with monsters (2 pairs+) 80% of the time.

      If my assumption on this is true, then shoving is bad cos your fold equity is only 20% at most and the other 80% of the time, you end up isolating yourself against his straights and 2 pairs and sets.

      Thus, calling seems to be the far superior option.

      Thanks.