[NL2-NL10] AJs 071913

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($10)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($13.34)
      UTG+1 ($10.89)
      UTG+2 ($5)
      MP1 ($8.18)
      MP2 ($41.74)
      CO ($8.16)
      BTN ($24.88)

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: A:heart: , UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.05, BB checks

      FLOP ($0.30) 2:heart: A:spade: Q:heart:

      Hero bets $0.22, BB folds, UTG calls $0.22

      TURN ($0.74) 2:heart: A:spade: Q:heart: Q:club:

      Hero bets $0.50, UTG calls $0.50

      RIVER ($1.74) 2:heart: A:spade: Q:heart: Q:club: T:club:

      Hero bets $1, UTG raises to $2.37, Hero folds
      c/c?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Hi.

      I think AJs is a little too strong to limp here. Maybe AT could be limped, A9 would definitely be a limp for me.

      As played you already lose to QX and KJ so I don't think you should be value betting the River. I would c/c here.

      Thanks.
    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      As played you already lose to QX and KJ so I don't think you should be value betting the River. I would c/c here.

      but Qx will often raise the turn? and he had a lot of AX ?(
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      i disagree with that. QX will often call the Turn again especially if he has a weaker kicker like QT.

      Does he have enough worse AX hands? Unless you think he's playing A2+, then you may have value in a river bet.

      Let's see

      With A2s+, A9o+

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: As2hQhQcTc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 62.00% 56.00% 6.00% { AhJh }
      MP3 38.00% 32.00% 6.00% { AJs-A2s, KQs, Q9s+, KhJh, AJo-A9o, QTo+ }

      With ATo

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: As2hQhQcTc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 56.82% 50.00% 6.82% { AhJh }
      MP3 43.18% 36.36% 6.82% { AJs-A2s, KQs, Q9s+, KhJh, AJo-ATo, QTo+ }

      He doesn't seem too loose to me. I think your value bet could be a little smaller, maybe half pot. But if I add all combos of KQ which is very possible IMO...

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: As2hQhQcTc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.00% 44.00% 6.00% { AhJh }
      MP3 50.00% 44.00% 6.00% { AJs-A2s, KQs, Q9s+, KhJh, AJo-ATo, KQo, QTo+ }

      My conclusion is that it's going to be thin, and AT would definitely be a check here. Since you are only a small equity favourite at the very most (50-55%), your bet should be between 1/3-1/2 pot.