i disagree with that. QX will often call the Turn again especially if he has a weaker kicker like QT.
Does he have enough worse AX hands? Unless you think he's playing A2+, then you may have value in a river bet.
Let's see
With A2s+, A9o+
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: As2hQhQcTc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.00% 56.00% 6.00% { AhJh }
MP3 38.00% 32.00% 6.00% { AJs-A2s, KQs, Q9s+, KhJh, AJo-A9o, QTo+ }
With ATo
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: As2hQhQcTc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.82% 50.00% 6.82% { AhJh }
MP3 43.18% 36.36% 6.82% { AJs-A2s, KQs, Q9s+, KhJh, AJo-ATo, QTo+ }
He doesn't seem too loose to me. I think your value bet could be a little smaller, maybe half pot. But if I add all combos of KQ which is very possible IMO...
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: As2hQhQcTc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.00% 44.00% 6.00% { AhJh }
MP3 50.00% 44.00% 6.00% { AJs-A2s, KQs, Q9s+, KhJh, AJo-ATo, KQo, QTo+ }
My conclusion is that it's going to be thin, and AT would definitely be a check here. Since you are only a small equity favourite at the very most (50-55%), your bet should be between 1/3-1/2 pot.