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zoom sh nl5 JJ

    • martinemem
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 610
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 46.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
      SB: 276.4 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 62)
      BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
      Hero (UTG): 244.8 BB
      MP: 72.6 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 11)
      CO: 235.6 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 21)

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: J:diamond:

      Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, CO calls 4 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) J:club: T:diamond: 4:heart:
      Hero bets 6 BB, CO raises to 12 BB, Hero raises to 29.4 BB, CO calls 17.4 BB

      Turn: (68.2 BB, 2 players) A:diamond:
      Hero bets 34.6 BB, CO calls 34.6 BB

      River: (137.4 BB, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero checks, CO bets 167.6 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

      Have 24 hands on him, not 21. Almost a nothing sample, but he seems to be a lagtard.
      W$wsf 5/7 - fold to bet 0/2 - fold to cbet 0/2 - raise 1/2 - fold to raise 1/1 - fold to 3bet 0/1
      Saw turn 4/7 (dont fold draws nomatter price) - fold to bet 0/3 - fold to cbet 0/2 - raise 2/3 -
      Saw river 4/4 (if he sees turn, he he sees river EVERYTIME (small sample)) - bet 3/3

      I figured a reg would shove for value to make it look like a bluff, but to me he does not look like a reg. Didnt get chance to see how many tables he was playing. Played 4 tables zoom with speed on :D
      If you where in his position, how often would you bluff ATs, AJ, AK, JT, KJ, 89?

      First mistake i see now is betting only 52% pot on turn, because he is stubborn and gets to all rivers if he sees turn, but then again since he is betting all rivers so far, he would aswell bet his busted draws. And then again, only 24 hands on him -.-

      I have to be right 5/9 times or 54,95% of the time, for it to be profitable.
      Lets say he does takes this line with JT, QJ, KJ, AJ, ATs, AJ, AQ, AK, 98, Q9
      Because he is a lagtard i can rule out TT+ since he is prob 100% 3betting this preflop. Furthermore KQ is ruled out aswell since the lagtard would have raised when i bet so small turn.

      board JcTd4hAdKc
      (16*0,5)+(16*0,75)+(16*0,5)+(16*0,5)+(4*0,75)+(16*0,5)+(16*0,75)+(16*0,5)+16+16= 8+12+8+8+3+8+12+8+16+16=99 combos
      we lose
      AQ, QJ, Q9 =12+12+16=40 combos 39,6% of the time.
      we win with 59 combos, 60,4% of the time.

      So am i right saying i won 5.45% of the pot everytime i made that call vs this opponent? Or am i missing something?
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