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[NL2-NL10] AKs5

    • pantasrb
      Joined: 23.12.2012 Posts: 700
      PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 603.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      Hero (SB): 100 BB
      BB: 161.6 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.81, 3Bet Preflop: 1.92, Hands: 147)
      UTG: 103.5 BB
      MP: 138.8 BB (VPIP: 41.18, PFR: 41.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
      CO: 155.6 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

      Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:diamond: A:diamond:

      UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

      Flop: (11 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond: J:club: 8:club:
      Hero bets 6 BB, UTG calls 6 BB

      Turn: (23 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond:
      Hero bets 20 BB, UTG raises to 92.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 69 BB and is all-in

      River: (201 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:

      Preflop I think is standard. Flop I cbet to put on pressure some PP. Is call on the turn good? I have monster draw, and I think that even A or K can be outs so that mean additional 6outs. When he push me here I think that it's usually set and sometimes AA or KK.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      I think the Flop bet should be slightly larger to 8BB. As played it's mostly a question of pot odds.

      You call 69 more to win a pot of 201.
      69/201 = ~34%

      My guess is that this is probably a fold and you need villain to be shoving a ton of worse draws to have enough equity to stack off here.

      If villain doesn't play his draws aggressively
      Board: 6dJc8cQd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 76.33% 76.33% 0.00% { 88, 66, QJs, T9s }
      MP3 23.67% 23.67% 0.00% { AdKd }

      If villain plays many draws aggressively
      Board: 6dJc8cQd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 63.07% 61.59% 1.48% { 88, 66, QJs, T9s, AcKc, AcTc, KcTc, JdTd, Jd9d, Jc9c, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ac2c }
      MP3 36.93% 35.45% 1.48% { AdKd }

      assuming that villain's true range is somewhere in between these two ranges, this looks much more like a fold to me.