[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH Zoom K8 bluffcatch

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($32.25)
      BB ($43.59)
      UTG ($12.75)
      UTG+1 ($25)
      CO ($34.04)
      Hero ($26.40)

      Dealt to Hero 8:diamond: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, BB calls $0.25

      FLOP ($1.10) 5:spade: 6:diamond: 2:club:

      BB checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($1.10) 5:spade: 6:diamond: 2:club: 8:club:

      BB bets $0.86, Hero calls $0.86

      RIVER ($2.82) 5:spade: 6:diamond: 2:club: 8:club: J:spade:

      BB bets $1.82, Hero calls $1.82

      Hero shows 8:diamond: K:spade:
      (Pre 27%, Flop 16.8%, Turn 11.4%)

      BB shows T:club: T:diamond:
      (Pre 73%, Flop 83.2%, Turn 88.6%)

      BB wins $6.17


      12/10, afq total 56, 42h

      note:
      bvb - cbet K75fd w A2 OOP BD nut FD, cbh T 6 - SLOWS DOWN W A HIGH ON TURN AND RIVER

      I guess on this river I should fold. Esp this opoenent looks tight. And vs unknown - would unknowns bluff this river enough?
  • 8 replies
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      hey speed why no cbet on the flop? i expect some average range here to be something like this: TT-22, AJs-A7s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AJo-A9o, KJo+, QJo which misses a lot, depending on how this guy plays OOP. if he can fold A high here then i think we can definitely cbet and take the pot down a ton, but even if he floats OOP we can still barrel him off so i think he folds enough to justify a cbet.

      on this river i don't really know what i'd do so i guess i'll have to wait for a judge. personally i would probably call it in game with the reasoning that if he was bluffing on the turn then he can continue these on the J which is a semi-scarecard... but on the other hand it's hard to say that an unknown will actually use scarecards to bluff on.

      since he is unknown i think there are some arguments to folding this...
      - people dont seem to follow through with their bluffs too often
      - people tend to use scarecards a little less than they should
      - when you call his bet on the turn you look like you have SDV, yet he still bets the river and it isn't exactly huge -- looks sort of like a value bet to me.

      i think it does look like a decent spot to fold...
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      why no cbet on the flop? i expect some average range here to be something like this: TT-22, AJs-A7s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AJo-A9o, KJo+, QJo which misses a lot, depending on how this guy plays OOP. if he can fold A high here then i think we can definitely cbet and take the pot down a ton, but even if he floats OOP we can still barrel him off so i think he folds enough to justify a cbet.


      becasue so far he looks on tighter side, which means he has good overcards and PPs which I doubd that fold very ofen on such flop. I mean I really dont expect A high to fold to a 2/3 bet (in these positions)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Hi

      Flop: I agree with your check here - He has Ace highs and pocket pairs really often due to the strength of his PF range and thus I think it's good to give up here. Maybe his range is wider here though, because of the min-raise preflop.

      Turn: as played, easy snap call down.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Turn: as played, easy snap call down.


      you meant both turn and river call?
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      but if we cbet 2/3 pot it only needs to work ~40% of the time and i think he can easily be folding more than this when he has just K high or even Q high. not only that but if he does call with his PPs or A high then the board is very likely to bring overs which we can continue on which is pretty great. its just 42 hands so although there is a tendency leaning towards a tight range should we not still treat him as relatively unknown? and also there's the minraise too..
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      cbet probably is not terrible with intention of barreling. BUt if he calls A highs and board brings over cards, those can hit his range than too.

      But if I have more equity, like backdoor FD then I more likely cbet. But one thing I dont like is that he is so tight and less chance that 28/25 guy would run so bad and have such stats. But I am not claiming that those are real stats of course. I just dont want to risk when I am not really sure if he is loose enough preflop.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Turn: as played, easy snap call down.


      you meant both turn and river call?
      yes
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      @drdunne: I suggest you try mapping out villain's range and checking out your FE. 12/10 is insanely tight though, so I'm only putting him on broadways and PP here.