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[NL20-NL50] EV Calculation - QQ preflop ship over squeeze

    • MisterSnS
      MisterSnS
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2011 Posts: 1,748
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $27.62 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
      SB: $25.53 (VPIP: 29.20, PFR: 20.35, 3Bet Preflop: 8.93, Hands: 116)
      Hero (BB): $27.70
      UTG: $27.98 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
      MP: $68.46 (VPIP: 13.07, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 3.79, Hands: 310)
      CO: $20.28 (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q:spade: Q:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, SB raises to $4.20, Hero raises to $27.70 and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $21.33 and is all-in

      Flop: ($54.06, 2 players) 5:spade: 6:heart: 6:spade:
      Turn%s: ($54.06, 2 players) T:heart:
      River%s: ($54.06, 2 players) K:club:

      Hi!

      I just wanted to make sure that I did the right EV calculation for the ship (expecting to have FE = 0, and a squeeze-range of QQ+,AKo,AKs)

      EV = (0,40 x ($25,53 + $3,00 +$ 0,25)) - (0,6 x $27,55)

      = $11,51 - $16.62 = - $5.11

      Calling is no option for me, so the fold is the right play. Accepted?
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      You are assuming that you have 0 fold equity here which is something i disagree with. Villain may have JJ as well (which he may either stack off or fold to your cold 4bet push). Basically if you think you are an underdog here then you should never push. I don't think there's enough dead money to justify pushing a hand that's significantly below 50% equity.

      I do think the push is probably alright though

      EV = X (7.45) + (1-X)[(0.40)(54.06)-25.53]
      X is your fold equity here
      1-X is when villain calls
      You invest 25.53, and you win back 40% X 54.06 (size of pot) on average so your loss is the difference between both.
    • MisterSnS
      MisterSnS
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2011 Posts: 1,748
      Hey mbml, thanks. Ok, let me have a try...

      Let's say, Villain's range is expanding towards AQ+,JJ+.. (3,51%), all kombo's AQ and JJ (including card removal) make up a range of 1,14% --> 1,14 / 3,51 = 0,32 (our Foldequity). For simplicity I keep all kombo's of AK in.

      EV = 0,32 (7.45) + (0,68)[(0.40)(54.06)-25.53]
      = 2,38 - 10,83
      = -8,45

      ???
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      i dont think you get 10.83 here, you made a mistake. 0.4 X 54.06 = 21
      its close to breakeven, if your assumptions are true. i think villain's range could be wider though
    • MisterSnS
      MisterSnS
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2011 Posts: 1,748
      EV = 0,32 (7.45) + (0,68)[(0.40)(54.06)-25.53]
      = 2,38 - (-2.65608)
      = 5,036

      Ok, then it is fine to push here, even assuming his range being THAT narrow. Thank you!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      No!!!

      0.4(54) = 21

      0.68 (21-25.5) = a negative number
      2.38 + a negative number = close to 0

      it's 0.32 XXX + 0.68 XXX
      not 0.32 XXX - 0.68 XXX
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      so the EV is -0.3 or something like that if your assumptions are right. I do think that an aggressive villain would have TT/KQ/AJ sometimes as well which would make your push much more profitable.

      Don't forget you need to account for the times when the PFR or the other callers wake up with a hand. It's unlikely that the callers are slowplaying, but let's say that 2% of the time, UTG has AK/KK/AA. Maybe another 1% of the time MP is slowplaying the same range. This further complicated the equation and you don't really need to account for this too much but note that when that happens you lose even more money.

      Chances of UTG and MP both not waking up with a hand = 0.98 X 0.99 = 0.97
      0.03 of the time, you get it in with one of them having a range of KK+/AK. You have 40% equity vs this range as well.

      It probably doesn't occur often enough for us to be overly concerned with its effects (not worth our time calculating the EV for something which only occurs 3% of the time and has a very small effect on overall EV).