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[NL2-NL10] JJ fold/call river shove with 4 card straight

    • martinemem
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 627
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 46.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
      SB: 276.4 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 62)
      BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
      Hero (UTG): 244.8 BB
      MP: 72.6 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 11)
      CO: 235.6 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 21)

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: J:diamond:

      Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, CO calls 4 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) J:club: T:diamond: 4:heart:
      Hero bets 6 BB, CO raises to 12 BB, Hero raises to 29.4 BB, CO calls 17.4 BB

      Turn: (68.2 BB, 2 players) A:diamond:
      Hero bets 34.6 BB, CO calls 34.6 BB

      River: (137.4 BB, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero checks, CO bets 167.6 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

      Have 24 hands on him, not 21. Almost a nothing sample, but he seems to be a lagtard.
      W$wsf 5/7 - fold to bet 0/2 - fold to cbet 0/2 - raise 1/2 - fold to raise 1/1 - fold to 3bet 0/1
      Saw turn 4/7 (dont fold draws nomatter price) - fold to bet 0/3 - fold to cbet 0/2 - raise 2/3 -
      Saw river 4/4 (if he sees turn, he he sees river EVERYTIME (small sample)) - bet 3/3

      I figured a reg would shove for value to make it look like a bluff, but to me he does not look like a reg. Didnt get chance to see how many tables he was playing. Played 4 tables zoom with speed on :D
      If you where in his position, how often would you bluff ATs, AJ, AK, JT, KJ, 89?

      First mistake i see now is betting only 52% pot on turn, because he is stubborn and gets to all rivers if he sees turn, but then again since he is betting all rivers so far, he would aswell bet his busted draws. And then again, only 24 hands on him -.-

      I have to be right 5/9 times or 54,95% of the time, for it to be profitable.
      Lets say he does takes this line with JT, QJ, KJ, AJ, ATs, AJ, AQ, AK, 98, Q9
      Because he is a lagtard i can rule out TT+ since he is prob 100% 3betting this preflop. Furthermore KQ is ruled out aswell since the lagtard would have raised when i bet so small turn.

      board JcTd4hAdKc
      (16*0,5)+(16*0,75)+(16*0,5)+(16*0,5)+(4*0,75)+(16*0,5)+(16*0,75)+(16*0,5)+16+16= 8+12+8+8+3+8+12+8+16+16=99 combos
      we lose
      AQ, QJ, Q9 =12+12+16=40 combos 39,6% of the time.
      we win with 59 combos, 60,4% of the time.

      So am i right saying i won 5.45% of the pot everytime i call vs this opponent? Or am i missing something?
  • 3 replies
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      Hey Martinemem,

      I think you are being overly optimistic with your calculations here.

      It's super unlikely most guys are just going to turn a made hand into a bluff at these limits. He needs an air hand to bluff with - and even then, no guarantee he will actually bluff.

      Again, probably overly optimistic to completely rule out TT+ from opponents range.

      As played would likely just check/fold river. (Another option is just to bet really small).

      I don't hate the turn bet or anything. Perhaps could be a little larger to make it easier to get stacks in on river - but even then, QK gets there on the turn so you can't be super happy facing a raise.
    • martinemem
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 627
      Maybe a bit optimistic to rule out TT+. But isnt it the +ev of this style to 3bet trash + the big hands. If he dont 3bet TT+, he just going to lose a lot in the longrun.

      And if we say i can rule out AA KK QQ instead, this only gives me a bigger +ev decision on the river?

      And he probably plays this way to raise flop cbets and bet most rivers, because it is full of nits on this format. And his samlpesize although it is super small, is suggesting i should call. He is betting river everytime he gets there? 3/3

      I could have folded vs a reg tag or a nit, that goes all in, since he is probably checking back AK AJ. And not betting 60% or something on river, because that would look like a value bet, and therefore he would shove his Qx hands.

      But this is a lagtard, that goes for shortrun results, and then probably leaves after he loses his stack.

      River: (137.4 BB, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero checks, CO bets 167.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 167.6 BB

      CO shows 8:spade: 9:spade: (High Card, Ace) (Pre 19%, Flop 26%, Turn 18%)
      Hero shows J:spade: J:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 81%, Flop 74%, Turn 82%)
      Hero wins 453 BB
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      TT is not necessarily a big hand vs UTG open, lot of guys won't 3bet it here.

      Just in general you don't want to give guys credit for turning made hands into bluffs in this spot. Nearly always made hands get check back on 4-to-straight board. 89 happens to be one of the only air hands in his range and most guys won't raise the flop with it at these limits.

      We also have to factor in that we are deep and most guys won't just fire off 150bb like that on river as a bluff