[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 Q9s river spot - bluffcatcher vs a strange line

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BB): $25.35 (101.4 bb)
      BTN: $27.73 (110.9 bb)
      SB: $25.29 (101.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 Q
      BTN folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.50) 7 2 2 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2

      Turn: ($7.50) 4 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, SB calls $4.75

      River: ($17) 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $16.79 and is all-in, Hero folds

      -----

      Villain was unknown and since I know most regs, he is likely to be a recreational player.

      FLOP
      I put villain on 88+ and A:sx. Vs that range I get good odds to call:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 7s2s2h
      Equity Win Tie
      SB 65.88% 65.80% 0.09% { 88+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s }
      BB 34.12% 34.03% 0.09% { Qs9s }

      However, I think I haven't considered the reverse implied odds in this scenario as my draw is often dominated and I'm not sure if Q or 9 is good. Could I find a fold here vs an unknown?

      TURN
      Value betting, would really suck to face a shove here but I would have to fold if I do?

      RIVER
      #1 If he doesn't bet, I would shove myself, right?
      However, when he bets, I'm not sure I'm I'm good to call. I don't see him making this line with worse hands and it looks really strong.
      #2 So folding is max EV?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dawidas888,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Generally not many guys ck/raise for value as the PFR unless you are super aggro and have some history. So I don't really expect a ton of value hands in his range on that board.

      As played I think the river is close because of his super weird line. I don't think he is bluffing so what do we beat? I can't find much.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi Bogdan,

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      So if I understand you correctly you are saying that my bet/call line OTF is alright because his range is skewed mostly towards draws/bluffs? Should I be worried by reverse implied odds in this spot?

      If I hit a Q/9 my plan would be to calldown most of the time, right?

      Also, so overall I played this hand fine and made no mistakes?

      Thanks again for the help!
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      Hi Bogdan,

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      So if I understand you correctly you are saying that my bet/call line OTF is alright because his range is skewed mostly towards draws/bluffs? Should I be worried by reverse implied odds in this spot?

      If I hit a Q/9 my plan would be to calldown most of the time, right?

      Thanks again for the help!
      Yes, there are better draws but also worse ones. And if we hit the Q or 9 we have a great showdown hand now (especially a Q).