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[NL2-NL10] AJo 072613

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($22.35)
      BB ($9.83)
      UTG ($9.05)
      UTG+1 ($7.93)
      UTG+2 ($10)
      MP1 ($1.91)
      MP2 ($10)
      Hero ($11.29)
      BTN ($4.64)

      MP1 posts $0.10

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: A:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, MP1 checks, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN raises to $1, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $11.29 (AI), BTN calls $3.64 (AI)
  • 4 replies
    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      Poorly played, in my opinion.
      Folding is best nearly... always.

      He very rarely 3bets, and of the times he has 3bet he only folds to a 4bet 1/4th of the time, meaning he (for the most part) 3bets very strong hands.

      Let's say of the 6% of hands he three bets, he continues 4/6 of them. This still gives him a range of TT+, AKo, AQs+. Against this range you still only have 27.01% equity, which just isn't enough to justify a shove in my opinion. This is being generous to his range too, as I doubt he would call a shove with TT - JJ, or AQs.
      If we remove these hands from his range you're down to 23% equity against what he'd call a shove with.

      You can't exactly call as stack size/his stats don't allow for it. AJo plays terrible in 3bet pots OOP too, so you're best just mucking it preflop and moving on to the next hand.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Originally posted by SheepMoose
      Poorly played, in my opinion.
      Folding is best nearly... always.

      He very rarely 3bets, and of the times he has 3bet he only folds to a 4bet 1/4th of the time, meaning he (for the most part) 3bets very strong hands.
      not sure how you came to this conclusion - His fold to 4bet is 73% which is around 3 out of 4 times and not 1 out of 4 times.
    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      That was a misread on my point. Got "Fold to 4bet" confused with "Call 4bet".
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi nipbourne,

      Let's say his 3bet % is around 8-10%, and that he has a value range of JJ+/AK (3% of starting hands). His 3-bet % from BU is 7%, but vs a CO open it should be even wider, like 10%.

      So 70% of the time, he folds and you win $1.55. 30% of the time you get it in vs JJ+/AK and you have 25.5% equity vs that range. You risk

      EV = 0.7 (1.55) + 0.3 (-4.24+0.255*943) = 1.085 - 0.551 = 0.534
      So we can see that your shove here has a positive expectation.

      Nice hand.