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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 J9s

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      UTG: $87.02 (174 bb)
      Hero (MP): $67.57 (135.1 bb)
      CO: $82.27 (164.5 bb)
      BTN: $19.17 (38.3 bb)
      SB: $51.90 (103.8 bb)
      BB: $58.06 (116.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 9 J
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 9 J 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.75) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.50, CO calls $5.50

      River: ($19.75) 7 (2 players)
      Hero ???


      CO 26/20 after 316 hands
      CO coldcall 22% (2/9)
      foldtoCbet F / T / R 27(3/11) / 0(0/3) / 100(1/1)


      Do I have a valuebet on the river? I dont think Tx/9x would call here, but AJ/KJs/QJs could. T9s could probably raise turn, so I'm not sure it's in his range.
      If check, ch/fold?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Hi

      First we need to ask ourselves if we have value in a bet. So let's see our equity vs a likely calling range.

      Board: 9sJc4dTc7d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 83.87% 83.87% 0.00% { TT, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, KQo }
      MP3 16.13% 16.13% 0.00% { Jd9d }

      Even if I were a lot more optimistic, we would still have much less than the required 50% equity.

      So the clear play is to check.

      Question is whether you think he turns worse made hands into bluffs or not. If the answer is no, then you have an easy check/fold.

      Thanks.