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[NL2-NL10] KK OOP against fish

    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.31, PFR: 11.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.86, Hands: 1,697)
      MP+1: 82.88 BB (VPIP: 30.30, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 67)
      CO: 76.12 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
      BTN: 67.68 BB (VPIP: 7.99, PFR: 5.90, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 291)
      SB: 58.08 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 9)
      BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.42, PFR: 12.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.52, Hands: 1,260)
      Hero (UTG): 109.12 BB
      UTG+1: 112.88 BB (VPIP: 11.49, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 1.61, Hands: 299)
      UTG+2: 146.4 BB (VPIP: 15.19, PFR: 10.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 79)

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K:diamond: K:spade:

      Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) 6:club: 7:diamond: T:heart:
      Hero bets 7 BB, MP+1 calls 7 BB

      Turn: (23.4 BB, 2 players) J:club:
      Hero bets 18 BB, MP+1 calls 18 BB

      Since villain is a fish, I decided to bet here because I think he would call with a pairs or gutshots (besides all the hands that beat mine).

      River: (59.4 BB, 2 players) T:club:
      Hero bets 34 BB, MP+1 calls 34 BB

      At the river, do you think it's better to keep betting, or check / call? And what about the bet size?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      Flop and Turn look fine to me. The river is an extremely bad card. I don't think you can bet for value here, cos the majority of his range should comprise TX. He could have some 7X/TX/JX hands here.

      TX: AT KT QT JT T9s T8s
      JX: J9s J8s
      7X: 78s 79s
      PP: 88 99

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 6c7dThJcTc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 59.26% 59.26% 0.00% { 99-88, ATs, KTs, QTs, J8s+, T8s+, 97s, 87s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
      MP3 40.74% 40.74% 0.00% { KdKs }

      As you can see, even when I am so optimistic here, you cannot bet for value with only 40% equity (you get called by worse hands on average).

      So the next question is whether to check/fold or check/call. If you think he never bets worse, then your best line is to check/fold. I don't really see any busted draws too. Doubt he would call twice with a hand like A8 and then turn it into a bluff. Everything he has probably has some sort of showdown value.

      Thanks.