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[NL2-NL10] 33 28.07.13

    • Tavore
      Tavore
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2013 Posts: 88
      iPoker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      SB: 227 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
      Hero (BB): 100 BB
      UTG: 204 BB (VPIP: 7.84, PFR: 7.84, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
      UTG+1: 96 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
      MP: 26 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 12)
      CO: 131 BB (VPIP: 24.43, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 223)
      BTN: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3:diamond: 3:club:

      fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 2:spade: 6:spade: 5:heart:
      Hero checks, MP bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

      Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 6:heart:
      Hero checks, MP bets 8 BB, Hero raises to 25.5 BB, MP calls 12 BB

      River: (52.5 BB, 2 players) 7:club:

      Hero shows 3:diamond: 3:club: (Two Pair, Sixes and Threes) (Pre 50%, Flop 47%, Turn 64%)
      MP shows A:spade: J:spade: (One Pair, Sixes) (Pre 50%, Flop 53%, Turn 36%)
      Hero wins 49 BB
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      You are in the BB here. I don't think calling is ever an option vs a 26BB stack unless he's really passive and will often let you check down and get to the showdown. So your other options here are to shove or to fold.

      Do you know how to use Pokerstrategy Equilab? This could be a decent spot to try out some algebraic equations and solve them. I'll show you some examples below. Anyway...

      As played, I think your play is fine. With 2 flush draws out there with so little money left behind in comparison to the pot, a c/c c/r line makes the most sense.

      Assuming the average MP player opens 16% of hands, let's see...

      Let's say villain calls your push with a range of 88+/AQ+ (5.6%). Your equity with 33 is 33% vs such a range. You would be risking 25BB more to win a pot of 52.5BB. You would get back 33% X 52.5BB on average (17.325BB). If you get called, you lose 25-17=8 on average. When he folds, you win 3 (MP's open) +1.5 (blinds) = 4.5

      Expectation = (5.6/16)(-8) + (10.4/16)(4.5) = -2.8 + 2.925 = +0.125BB

      If my assumptions are right, this would be a +EV play. But if they are wrong and villain calls the push wider, then this would be a -EV play.