[NL20-NL50] [FR] NL25 AKs ex.02 27.07

    • UnknownJoseph
      UnknownJoseph
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2010 Posts: 5,748
      Full Tilt - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BB): $25.00
      UTG: $26.71 (VPIP: 11.79, PFR: 11.05, 3Bet Preflop: 3.17, Hands: 546)
      UTG+1: $20.00 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
      MP: $21.17 (VPIP: 14.69, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 147)
      MP+1: $10.91 (VPIP: 45.10, PFR: 32.00, 3Bet Preflop: 35.71, Hands: 51)
      CO: $19.65 (VPIP: 19.29, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.03, Hands: 739)
      BTN: $7.44 (VPIP: 28.75, PFR: 10.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 326)
      SB: $34.40 (VPIP: 11.97, PFR: 7.17, 3Bet Preflop: 1.93, Hands: 3,755)

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K:heart: A:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, fold, Hero raises to $3.25, CO calls $2.50, fold

      Flop: ($7.35, 2 players) 8:club: J:heart: 7:club:
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($7.35, 2 players) A:diamond:
      Hero bets $4.25, CO raises to $16.40 and is all-in, Hero calls $12.15

      River: ($40.15, 2 players) 4:heart:

      After this hand I was a little pissed off that I called turn shove but
      we need 30% equity, let's say he pushs with

      Board: 8cJh7cAd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 35.11% 25.45% 9.66% { AhKh }
      MP3 64.89% 55.23% 9.66% { AA, JJ, 88-77, AJs+, AJo+ }

      do you think that this range is fair?
      As we can see we can profitable call.
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Hi.

      1. I don't expect villain to slowplay AA most of the time. Giving him all combos of AA is not reasonable.

      2. JJ may 4b preflop, especially if villain is loose. And if not, he probably bets this flop unless he's really bad. The board is so draw heavy and slowplaying top set here is not a good play.

      3. Same applies for 77/88. I guess checking back AJ isn't so bad as compared to checking back sets but I think it's not too good either. So I don't think you can fold here.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Are you sure that we have so much equity vs a range that has us completely crushed? When his range comprises solely of stronger made hands like sets (which we are drawing dead against) and two pairs (which we only have 3 outs against), surely you would think that your equity is way less than 30% here.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8cJh7cAd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 2.41% 2.41% 0.00% { AhKh }
      MP3 97.59% 97.59% 0.00% { AA, JJ, 88-77, AJs, AJo }

      That's besides the point. As I mentioned previously I don't think your range is accurate here.
    • UnknownJoseph
      UnknownJoseph
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2010 Posts: 5,748
      I put this range in the worst scenario for us so even with this range we have easy call.
      As you wrote many hands we can delete from this range so we have much easier call.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Can you show me how you got this?

      Board: 8cJh7cAd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 35.11% 25.45% 9.66% { AhKh }
      MP3 64.89% 55.23% 9.66% { AA, JJ, 88-77, AJs+, AJo+ }

      This looks incredibly wrong to me. I already showed you previously that you only have 2% equity.
    • UnknownJoseph
      UnknownJoseph
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2010 Posts: 5,748
      Originally posted by mbml
      Can you show me how you got this?

      Board: 8cJh7cAd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 35.11% 25.45% 9.66% { AhKh }
      MP3 64.89% 55.23% 9.66% { AA, JJ, 88-77, AJs+, AJo+ }
      ok... I determined this range in the worst scenario for us. Because of given action you deleted some monsters from this range so even when he pushs with monsters+ worse hand we can profitable call.

      Originally posted by mbml
      This looks incredibly wrong to me. I already showed you previously that you only have 2% equity.
      I haven't seen your range because probably I was posting...
      so why you deleted from this range AQ and AK?
      when he holds AJ he would probably push with AQ too.
      I'm not claim that this range is correct as you can see not so show me, teach me how to build range that I could analyze ev spots.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Ooops I misread your range. My bad, thought you didn't include AK and AQ. Let's talk about a few things

      1. Whatever I said previously about discounting AA and sets still stands true.
      2. This guy could very well have AQ/AK. He seems on the passive side so I would not be surprised if he did not choose to 4-bet with AK preflop.
      3. I agree with your range here and you should call the push since pot odds < pot equity.