[NL2-NL10] NL5 fast fold. Preflop strategy

    • redrawstump
      Joined: 09.05.2012 Posts: 244

      I'm not really interested in this specific hand but more this situation in general. I've recently started NL5 FF on William Hill (still have some of those free PS $$$s!) and this situation pops up all the time. I've been thru my PT history and these type of plays seem to be from 20/20 type players with a ~10% 3-bet stat, and they all seem to have between $1.50 to $2.00 (35BB ish). There will be an open-raise then folds or calls and then villain shoves.

      I'm trying to work on a defending range vs. this short-stack type strategy. Firstly, I open 4BB from UTG, MP and SB and 3BB from CO and BTN typically. Should I reduce to 3BB from all positions if I see a likely villain stack?

      My usual range to call a <50BB shove is TT+, AQs+, AKo, widening as the effective stack reduces in size. If I assume a 10% range from villain then that's probably 22+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs or something like. If I call 88+, AQo+, AJs+, KQs (5%) then I have 56% equity. Does this sound like a sensible range for this situation? I'm giving myself an equity edge as sample size errors mean that for each individual villain 10% may not be accurate and this coupled with the dead money should make up for any tighter 3-bettors making this play.

      Thanks for taking the time to read this! :)

      iPoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $1.57 (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 77)
      Hero (UTG): $13.73
      MP: $12.05 (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      CO: $1.52 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 68)
      BTN: $1.55 (VPIP: 21.54, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 66)
      SB: $5.00 (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 2.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:club: 9:club:

      Hero raises to $0.20, fold, CO raises to $1.52 and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold

      CO wins $0.47
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717

      When you have 3 short stacks at the table, opening to 4 BB is definitely going to be a big mistake. You are just giving these guys better odds to shove their entire stack in and steal your 4BB.

      The best adjustment is to adjust your raise size downwards, and tighten up especially when you are OOP. I still think it's fine to open this hand but I would start making smaller raises, perhaps to 12-15 cents.

      I think your "one range fits all" type of approach is not suitable for this sort of situation. He's going to be 3-betting much wider vs steals, and much tighter vs early position raises.

      I think your sample size is a little too low to have any sort of meaningful guess on his range. Let's assume he is 3-betting like 5% of hands in this situation (99+/AQ+).

      Step 1: Calculate your pot odds here (Amount to call / Total pot size after calling)
      Step 2: Calculate your equity with various hands vs such a 5% range
      Step 3: Determine the weakest hand you can call the all-in with, and define your calling range (which hands have equity higher than the pot odds being offered?)

      Let me know if what I said was clear enough, and I'll elaborate.

    • redrawstump
      Joined: 09.05.2012 Posts: 244
      thanks. I was assuming that villain was not taking positions into account with this strategy but it makes sense for him to vary his play depending on position of initial raise. Will defo. be changing my opening raise size now.

      So, looking at the equity situation as you say:
      we have to call $1.32 to win $3.11 which is 42% (ignoring rake)
      if we call 88+ and ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo then we get:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    57.47%  54.48%   2.99% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
      CO     42.53%  39.54%   2.99% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

      so 88 and KQo are the worst hands we can call vs. a 5% shove range.

      by the by, if we open-raised 15c then we need 45% which cuts us down to 88+ and AJ+ and we also lose less when we fold.

      Does this sound right?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Your pot odds calculation is correct. But your equity calculation is wrong.

      1. TT -> Call
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 55.75% 54.78% 0.96% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
      MP3 44.25% 43.29% 0.96% { TT }

      2. 99 -> Fold
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 62.54% 61.58% 0.96% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
      MP3 37.46% 36.50% 0.96% { 99 }

      3. AQs-> Fold
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 61.06% 52.52% 8.54% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
      MP3 38.94% 30.40% 8.54% { AQs }

      4. AKo -> Call
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 51.35% 42.22% 9.13% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
      MP3 48.65% 39.52% 9.13% { AKo }

      So the strongest unpaired hand you can call with is AKo, and the strongest pocket pair you can call is TT.

      Of course this may change based on how wide villain is shoving. But assuming my assumptions are true, this is how you find out which hands are callable yourself.