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[NL20-NL50] nl20 sh 88 backraise

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem

      UTG ($7.90) 40bb
      UTG+1 ($20.44) 102bb
      CO ($15.45) 77bb
      BTN ($23.09) 115bb
      Hero (SB) ($25.57) 128bb
      BB ($7.90) 40bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 6 players) Hero is SB 8:heart: 8:club:
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.30, BB raises to $1.42, BTN folds, Hero raises to $8,

      BU = 26/23 over 202 hands. he opens BU 73%.
      BB = 15/13 over 240 hands, 3bets 11.5% and total sqz so far is 14%. safe to say he's some sort of MSS player or maybe even some bot. despite his really tight stats i think he's gunna be squeezing quite a lot here so i decided to just shove it in thinking im not doing bad if i get called by his AQ or whatever.

      i think this is okay, but its one of those hands where i might doubt myself if he calls with KK or something. just felt like a decent spot at the time
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      I honestly think it's a sample size issue. If his PFR is 13%, do you really think his 3-bet is going to be 11%? I think not.

      This is a spot for you to practice some equity calculations. I'm not too sure how much your fold equity is actually going to be here. I guess he is not necessarily committed when he only risks like 20% of his stack size and you should have some FE if you backraise.

      Let's say his value range is 5% and his total range is 10%, meaning that you have 50% fold equity.

      50% of the time, you win $2.22
      50% of the time, you call and you have 35.6% equity in a pot of (7.9+7.9+0.4=16.2)=$5.77. You are risking 7.50 more and getting back 5.77 on average, which means that you lose 1.78 when called.

      Total EV = 0.5 (2.22) + 0.5 (-1.78) = +$0.22
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 35.64% 35.43% 0.21% { 8h8c }
      MP3 64.36% 64.16% 0.21% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

      You can see that it's extremely marginal. I'm not going to say it's bad but the EV between folding and calling is extremely close. If you had 99 I would say it's probably a shove and TT would be a clear shove.