[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AKo river spot - value bet vs bluffcatching

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $161.44 (645.8 bb)
      BTN: $23 (92 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      BB: $27.44 (109.8 bb)
      Hero (MP): $25.35 (101.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A K
      Hero raises to $0.85, CO folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

      Flop: ($2.05) 2 J A (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.05) 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.75, BTN calls $4.75

      River: ($14.55) 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $15.90 and is all-in, Hero folds


      BU was 28/6/0 over 37 - relative unknown
      AG% - 44 (50/33/50)

      Standard value bets - villain insta called both of them.

      Could I value bet this river? I think not as although villain does look fishy I think it's marginal as I have no blockers for a flush + he insta called which looked like a medium made hand or a flush.

      On the other hand, if I shove I think I could still get call from worse Ax and since I can't really bluffcatch vs this unknown it may be better to shove to fold out hands he would bluff with on the river?

      As played, villain almost insta-shoved after I checked. He didn't look smart enough to do this with a bluff. So good fold?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi David,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I think that we should bet the river. The only question is if we should ship it or bet smaller.

      I think it's close between the two but a shove may fold some of his Ax hands since the 3d is a pretty big scare card (2 draws complete). So betting 1/2 and folding is still an option.