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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 87s 3bet pot, turn spot - marginal draw OoP

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $31.22 (124.9 bb)
      CO: $30.38 (121.5 bb)
      BTN: $47.54 (190.2 bb)
      Hero (SB): $30.34 (121.4 bb)
      BB: $25.57 (102.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 7
      MP raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB folds, MP calls $1.75

      Flop: ($5.25) 2 6 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, MP calls $3

      Turn: ($11.25) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, MP raises to $25.72 and is all-in, Hero folds


      MP was 20/16/5 over 289
      Ft3b - 62
      FtCB: F - 50(8), T - 50(2)
      Bet vs missed CBet: T - 67(3)
      WTSD% - 10, W$SD - 50

      My standard 3bet bluff.

      Standard cbet.

      When he shoved it appears I was right that I don't have the right odds to call (even in a best case scenario):
      Board: 2d6d7d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      BU 29.83% 29.83% 0.00% { 8s7s }
      SB 70.17% 70.17% 0.00% { TT+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc }

      The question is - could I check/call or check/shove this turn for more FE? If I check/call I'll profit from all of his floats as I beat them + I will get to realize my equity. If I x/shove I may fold out hands that have a lot of equity vs me (Adx, maybe JJ-TT). Given that villain folds a reasonable amount to flop cbets I think he is not folding to my bet on the turn.

      What should my plan be on the turn?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi David,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I agree that as played you don't want to be calling that.

      As far as the alternative line of ck/raising I think it's actually fine in a spot where you can expect lighter floats. Although I'm not sure if villain is capable of bet/folding a hand like TT-JJ with a diamond.