ICM concept.

    • ballsdeep11
      ballsdeep11
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2013 Posts: 6
      Just had an argument with my friend about ICM and shoving and he just seems to be under the impression "If you're ahead shove" (+EV) in certain 3 bet situations.

      I tried to go to an extreme example stating, bubble is 16th place, 21 people left, you are on button with AA and everyone else goes all in before it gets to you.

      Would that be +$ev or -$ev.

      His response is "You're ahead pre-flop, youre never folding in that spot, ever, even with 5+ all ins before you".

      My argument is: The chances of AA holding to the river with over half the table involved

      Edit: I tried to explain my point with. 10 man SnG, you are BB, first hand, everyone goes all before you, you have AA. "If you fold, you are doing it wrong."


      I'm under the impression that folding is the best play here surely, since you're basically a big favorite to hit the money.

      Am I wrong?
  • 4 replies
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,242
      Well, yes^^

      ICM is an important concept, however, you shouldn't overthink spots. If you have AA there are VERY few spots where you might possibly fold.

      Example:
      You are 2nd in chips in a satellite and sitting in the big blind. 20 players are left. 19 players get a ticket. You have AA and the chipleader pushes from SB. You can't ever call his push - no matter what hand you got.

      In most normal MTT's such situations won't occure. Your szenarios are highly theoretical and therefore kinda senseless.

      I wouldn't ever fold AA preflop in a standard MTT.

      Sidenote: If 8 of your opponents go allin they will most likely steal each other most of their outs. Therefore AA would be even better then normally.

      Regards,
      Asaban
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,244
      Originally posted by Asaban

      ICM is an important concept, however, you shouldn't overthink spots. If you have AA there are VERY few spots where you might possibly fold.

      This is one of them. AA is flipping as a slight dog against 5 opponents (49.25%) and a worse dog against 6 opponents (43.57%). Given the proximity of the bubble and the likely prospect of multiple eliminations, a fold here would increase your equity in the prizepool.

      However this scenario is unlikely to happen and almost impossible that it would happen that close to the bubble.



      I wouldn't ever fold AA preflop in a standard MTT.

      Neither would I, but I would still prefer HU or 2 opponents max.



      Sidenote: If 8 of your opponents go allin they will most likely steal each other most of their outs. Therefore AA would be even better then normally.

      They would also steal yours. Personally I wouldn't want to end up in a 9 way showdown with unimproved Aces.

      Would you?

      DISCLAIMER: I am probably too much of a nit, but I was on the button with AA. I was 67/73 with 72 ITM out of 9k field. I had been playing 4 hours. All I had to do was fold to get my ticket, I shoved. SB calls with AQo. I am such a huge favourite. Flop comes QQ2. gg.

      I am now wary of situations where the strength of my hand or my share of equity in the prizepool is diminished.

      Just my humble and uneducated opinion. :f_confused:
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      Originally posted by Lazza61
      Originally posted by Asaban

      ICM is an important concept, however, you shouldn't overthink spots. If you have AA there are VERY few spots where you might possibly fold.

      This is one of them. AA is flipping as a slight dog against 5 opponents (49.25%) and a worse dog against 6 opponents (43.57%). Given the proximity of the bubble and the likely prospect of multiple eliminations, a fold here would increase your equity in the prizepool.

      However this scenario is unlikely to happen and almost impossible that it would happen that close to the bubble.
      If it's a big field MTT w/ a flat payout structure you can't take ICM too much in to consideration around the bubble since you won't be going for a min cash.

      Also if you get AA in vs 5 opponents and hold it will most likely put you in a good situation to go deep in the tournament.
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,242
      I am probably too much of a nit, but I was on the button with AA. I was 67/73 with 72 ITM out of 9k field. I had been playing 4 hours. All I had to do was fold to get my ticket, I shoved. SB calls with AQo. I am such a huge favourite. Flop comes QQ2. gg.

      I am now wary of situations where the strength of my hand or my share of equity in the prizepool is diminished.

      Just my humble and uneducated opinion. :f_confused:
      If it was a MTT the bubble shouldn't be too interesting when it comes to ICM. The future game aspect will outweight ICM in these spots more often then not.

      However, if it was a sattelite and 72 players received the same payout it's most likely an easy fold. At least if other stacks were shorter and folding the hand would guarantee you a ticket in almost every case.

      Regards,
      Asaban