
06.09.2008, 18:49

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This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by rowzee: 06.09.2008 18:54.
There are quite a few SSSers on Titan and I have started to compile a list of them to try to avoid them. However, once in a while I have to decide whether I should get involved in a pot with an SSSer, especially if I know that he is following the SHC. Since I don't know whether there are any articles regarding play against other SSSers, here are some of my thoughts on the subject.
Consider a raise from a known SSSer in an early position. From the SHC we know that he could be holding AA, KK, QQ, JJ or AK. Suppose we have AK, thus by SSS we should reraise. Let's us first, however, look at the possibilities what the villain could have. Since we have AK, there are 3 combinations of AA, 3 combinations of KK, 6 combinations of QQ, 6 combinations of JJ and 9 combinations of AK that he could have. Out of these 27 combinations, 18 or 67% are JJ+ which are ahead of our AK and 33% are AK that we end up splitting the pot with (disregarding any flush possibilities). Seems like an unprofitable play, being behind 67% if the time (22% of which we are dominated by AA and KK). Still, if we're up against QQ or JJ (44% of time), it's essentially a coinflip.
Consider the same situation, but instead AK we have JJ. Now the villain can have any of the 6 combinations of AA, 6 of KK, 6 of QQ, 1 of JJ and 16 of AK (35 together). The probability that we are dominated by AA, KK or QQ is 18/35 or 51%. Against JJ (2.9%) we split, against AK (46%) we have a coinflip. It seems to me that playing JJ against an SSSer is even more dangerous than playing AK.
Consider we have QQ instead of JJ. The combinations for the villain remain the same (the numbers for QQ and JJ are switched of course). Then the possibility of him having either AA or KK is 12/35 or 34%. He will have JJ 17% of the time and AK for a coinflip 46% of the time. At last, with QQ the game starts to appear profitable (we win 50% of our coinflips for 23% wins in total + 82% of our QQs vs JJ's for 14% wins in total, which together yields 37% of wins, not even counting our wins in 18:82 against AA or KK)
I haven't even considered the raise ranges of the villain from MPs and LPs, but I could work out the math. The most important question, however, remains, how do you play against a known SSS'er? Should I stay away from the math and just follow my SHC? I would gladly welcome any comments form the more experienced members.