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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AJo river spot - bluffcatching

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
      SB: $4.18 (16.7 bb)
      BB: $26.31 (105.2 bb)
      UTG: $49.38 (197.5 bb)
      Hero (MP): $33.12 (132.5 bb)
      CO: $19.42 (77.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with J A
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

      Flop: ($1.95) 4 Q 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50

      Turn: ($2.95) 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($2.95) T (2 players)
      SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      -----

      SB was 73/7/8 over 145
      FtCB: F - 38(24), T - 50(4)
      AG% - 21 (12/19/39(54))

      FLOP
      Villain was a huge calling station preflop so went for thin value. I assume that if he wants to fold he will fold regardless of my bet sizing. Though maybe I could bet bigger, something like $1.

      TURN
      No more thin value I guess.

      RIVER
      A lot of draws missed and villain is quite aggro OTR so I decided to bluffcatch.
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey D,

      I think your line is profitable but I have 2 main comments.

      One, as played, you have to remember that your bluffcatcher doesn't beat all his bluffs. I think it beats enough generally but you shouldn't expect to win here more than like 40% of the time or so.

      Second: there might be better EV in just shipping turn because all his hands have good equity against your A high and you pay off rivers anyway so you capitalise on more dead money or you let him realise less of his equity that way.