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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH Zoom AJs

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($28.38)
      BB ($12.50)
      Hero ($26.89)
      UTG+1 ($24.24)
      CO ($91.04)
      BTN ($29.01)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: J:club:

      Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.65, fold

      FLOP ($1.75) T:diamond: 4:spade: Q:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, SB calls $0.90

      TURN ($3.55) T:diamond: 4:spade: Q:club: 3:club:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($3.55) T:diamond: 4:spade: Q:club: 3:club: Q:spade:

      SB bets $1, Hero folds

      SB wins $3.39

      10/3 30h

      I do not bet the turn because I think his preflop and flop calling range is strong so I dont have fold equity. ALso if I bet, he can raise. Its good for me to see free river.
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Hi

      This is a very easy Turn barrel. I don't know why you think you don't have fold equity here.

      1. You can fold out AJ/AK
      2. You can fold out ATs/KTs sometimes
      3. If KJ calls again and you check the River, you win. You are value betting vs that hand
      4. With 25% chance of making the flush or straight on the River, you don't really need too much fold equity
      5. If you hit, you have already built up the pot further with your turn bet and you can win a larger pot especially on a River King (vs KQ)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Thats interesting. I really did not give him that wide range.

      Its UTG vs SB, and he so far is nit, so I really dont put him on KTs, ATs, KJ hands.

      AK might be but sometimes AK can fold on flop. Its just GS + overs, I think not all call that light.

      But why do you put him on so wide range preflop?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Hmm what you say is certainly true about him being tight and having a much tighter calling range in the SB.

      Maybe he doesn't have KJs here. Let's say his range is KQs/AJs/AK/AQ/TT. I think he never folds AK on the Flop - That's way too weak.

      You fold out 3 combos of AJs and 12 combos of AK.
      You get called by 3 combos of KQs and 9 combos of AQ and 3 combos of TT

      Based on this alone, you are folding about half of his range.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      BTW I think your required fold equity here is only ~25-30%. And if you fold out 50%, that's huge.

      You could attempt to perform some algebraic equations. Like if villain calls, you win X BB on average if you improve on the River (based on some estimates) and if he folds the Turn, you win Y BB.

      EV = P(villain folds T)(Size of Pot on T) + P(villain calls T and you improve on R)(Size on Pot on R + Some extra profit if he pays you off) + P(villain calls on T and you check/fold R)(extra amount paid with the T bet)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      P(villain folds T): 0,5
      size of pot on turn: 3,55 + 2,75
      P(villain calls T and you improve on R): 0,5 * 0,25
      size of pot on river + extra: 3,55 + 2,75*2 + 0
      P(villain calls on T and you check/fold R): 0,5 * 0,75
      (extra amount paid with the T bet):  2,75




      EV = 0,5 * (3,55+2,75) + 0,5*0,25 * (3,55 + 2,75*2 + 0) + 0,5*0,75 * 2,75 = 5.31


      There are some things to think about :

      - villain can raise on turn with TT - this is not included.
      - some extra profit is gone by him hitting fullhouse at the same time when I hit flush. So I put zero as balance, but would need to think more.
      - P(villain calls on T and you check/fold R)(extra amount paid with the T bet) - should this not be minus? This does not bring me profit - this bring me loss.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      1. I did specify TT though
      2. That's already taken into account when you calculate your flop equity vs his entire range, if we do include sets in the first place. The equity is how much of the pot you will get back on average.
      3. Yes you are right, it's a minus