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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH A3s

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($30.68)
      BB ($29.62)
      Hero ($20)
      UTG+1 ($1.08)
      CO ($41.57)
      BTN ($6.24)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: 3:heart:

      Hero raises to $0.60, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.30) 6:heart: 3:diamond: 9:heart:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $3.40, Hero raises to $7.40, BB raises to $29.02 (AI), Hero calls $12 (AI)

      TURN ($40.10) 6:heart: 3:diamond: 9:heart: K:club:

      RIVER ($40.10) 6:heart: 3:diamond: 9:heart: K:club: 4:diamond:

      BB shows 6:spade: 6:diamond:
      (Pre 66%, Flop 71.4%, Turn 81.8%)

      Hero shows A:heart: 3:heart:
      (Pre 34%, Flop 28.6%, Turn 18.2%)

      BB wins $38.10


      SB: 75/3 241h

      BB:


      What do you think - are htere overpairs in his raising range on flop BB vs UTG? If not then my stack off is really bad. But I was thinking - I could fold some over pairs by 3beting.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Hi.

      I don't think you are folding overpairs too often unless he's bad enough to check/raise/fold them on the Flop.

      Shoving could be good for several reasons
      1. Get it in vs a worse flush draw which you are absolutely crushing
      2. Fold out his equity share with hands like T8s
      3. Flop raise size is way too large.

      If he makes it smaller, I would just call the Flop raise and call all Turns while folding river unimproved. This way is better in position because you can win showdowns vs busted draws and also because you can win more when you hit and lose less when you miss.

      The downside to calling is that you may not get to realize your equity if you get 3-barreled off your hand by a worse hand like Q:hJ but I think the pros of calling outweighs the cons of calling if villain had made a smaller flop C/R size.

      Thanks.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      I don't think you are folding overpairs too often unless he's bad enough to check/raise/fold them on the Flop.


      Those which I am c/r I think I am not folding. I guess I can call cbet with QQ-TT because UTG is not having that many draws. With QQ I would not be so happy to c/r and get in vs strong UTG range, so I geuss calling and letting to bluff would be ok.

      But if we asume he is not folding much then I really have bad equity.

      I invested 0.6+0.8 = 1.4

      so I invest another 18.6 to win 40, which means I need 47% eq.

      My eq:
      MP2 26.44% 26.43% 0.01% A3s
      MP3 73.56% 73.55% 0.01% 99+, 66, 33, KhQh, QhJh



      I can have some fold equity from hands like T8s, JTs

      If he folds QhJh my equity drops by 1 %.


      Board: 6:heart: 3:diamond: 9:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    25.64%  25.63%   0.01% { A3s }
      MP3    74.36%  74.35%   0.01% { 99+, 66, 33, KhQh }


      So if we assume overpairs are not flding, I really dont have much fold equity and my hand equity vs his range is bad.

      Or am I missing something?

      Btw I am not assuming that he will start c/r with air. If he is so spewy then I would have more FE.

      Edit:

      my mistake: was using A3s instead of Ah3h :)

      then its much better. If he folds Fds:

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 6h3d9h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 45.16% 45.15% 0.01% { Ah3h }
      MP3 54.84% 54.83% 0.01% { 99+, 66, 33 }


      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 6h3d9h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 47.16% 47.15% 0.01% { Ah3h }
      MP3 52.84% 52.83% 0.01% { 99+, 66, 33, KhQh, QhJh }


      But it looks like close. Fold equity I think is not super big and him having T8s is not big chance I think.

      Plus we pay rake.

      But in general from what I see - its almost always getting in is ok with nut FD.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      I do expect you to have 40%+ equity vs his checkraising range. The more flush draws he stacks off with, the better 3-betting becomes. I think you could include hands like JJ too.

      Anyway with so much equity here, you don't really need more than 20% fold equity to make a profitable jam.