We are happy to bring you a new community promotion: Guess The Hand!
Whereas usually you think in ranges, narrowing our Hero down to a single hand could win you a cash prize of $50!
This promotion will be running for 4 weeks. We will post a new hand each week, meaning you have one week to guess the hand. You have to guess which two cards Hero holds, and have to explain the reason behind your choice.
• Only one guess per member is counted. If you make multiple guesses, your first one counts.
• You must explain your thought process. If you only provide us with a hand, your guess will not be eligible.
• If more than 1 member guesses the hand correctly, there will be a raffle between them.
• All guesses must be made before Sunday August 11, 23:59 CET (GMT+2)
This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by mbml: 05.08.2013 11:30.
Must we guess exact hole-cards? I think it's K:sX, with X being a Q or J or T.
Preflop: KJ and KQ are pretty standard 3-bets in SB vs BU.
Flop: It's pretty standard to check 2nd pair on the Flop these days
Turn: I think KXo will often check the Turn again so this actually leads me to believe that Hero actually checked his 2nd pair + Flushdraw type of holding on the Flop (good for balancing purpose) and is now leading K:sQ or K:sJ.
River: It's a decent spot to go for a check/raise with such a hand. Villain may either value bet a weaker flush or just turn weaker made hands into bluffs here.
This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by TheWinnerTakesItAll: 05.08.2013 13:35.
Hi, I think Hero has K
Preflop: standart 3bet SBvsBU, calling puts you in tough spot, because you are oop without initiative and BB might squeeze.
Flop: x/c flop w 2pair, not much value in betting.
Turn: when BU checks back Flop, he doesn't have A, maybe some combos of weak Ax, betting OTT looks standartd, getting value from weaker Kx and getting value from X
River: Hero has the nuts, as played on other streets BU doesn't look strong, he doesn't has a lot of hands that can call river bet, so x/r is better, BU can turn some Kx into or other hands into the bluff + might be dynamics and history between Hero and BU.
This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by jules97: 05.08.2013 12:54.
Ok, it looks like everyone is all over K
So, I'm claiming 33 as part of heros 3b/5b bluff range. On the flop, hero gives up. But then turns a set, so bets for value, gets led out on the river and isn't strong enough to call given that 4 spades have rocked up. So hero jams here which is more then fine to balance the K
X that hero has with this line.
Now which 3's... Hmm I'll go 3
because we need some red to balance out all the black in this hand.
My Guess is he is holding pocket KKs with the Ks in his hand.
I don't know how he or the button was playing before this hand but the button has a big stack and so I don't think hero would be going up against him with weak hands from the SB.
He does the standard thing with KK in the SB after a raise and puts in the 3-bet.
He is over the moon with the AK2 flop and checks. Hoping that the button has an A in his hand and to also not to scare him away if he doesn't have the A and give him a chance to catch up or bluff at it.
Turn is great for you hero now he's got the set and the nut draw, and he is now glad the button has a big stack. But obviously the pot is still pretty small. The pre flop raise and call suggested he had a decent hand and think the button could have checked behind on the flop if they had an A in their hand to not scare you off either. Neither have gave indication of a flush draw so there is little concern about that and Hero decides he has to bet in order to try and get money in this pot with such a big hand. he bets a decent amount of the pot as a half pot bet might look too much like you want him to call.
The spade on the river is not so good for the Hero, even though he improves to the nut flush there is now 4 spades on the board and it is very unlikely if the button has an Ax he would call now. So Hero checks, giving the Button the opportunity to represent that he was calling on the turn with a flush draw and has now hit.
When the button does bet on the river there is no point in doing anything else other than going for the max and moving all in, as if they have a hand they can call with they are just as likely going to call the all-in as a min raise.
So to sum I think Hero is holding KK with Ks (if I have to be more specific I will say KsKh) and I think the button folds on the river.
when we 3b from the Sb we ussually have a non-polarised range so mostly broadways and some pp's
We don't really play pp's like that unless we are going for a crazy bluff .
when we check we can have AA for a set that is slowplaying but mostly some weakish hands that want to get to showdown.
My guess whould be K:sQx , it is in our xcalling range on the flop but when he is checking back he almost never has an Ace , turn is a value bet with nfd and 2nd pair , river is a check-shove for value.
This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by SheepMoose: 05.08.2013 14:11.
I think people give hero too much credit here, and hero has a hand such as QJo with no spades that he's turned into a X/Jam river bluff.
Edit: Hero would most likely Value bet any decent flush on the river. Villains sizing at the same time doesn't look small enough to get value from any sort of T
hands and thus he bets with the expectation to take it down. Thus Hero has x/jammed knowing this with complete air.