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[NL20-NL50] AK 3b broke

  • 7 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi mla,

      Personally I feel that given how the board ran out you are just spewing money.

      No Qx is folding (and he has plenty) and even PPs that are second pair will have a hard time folding since everything missed.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,735
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi mla,

      Personally I feel that given how the board ran out you are just spewing money.

      No Qx is folding (and he has plenty) and even PPs that are second pair will have a hard time folding since everything missed.
      So far I was bet bet bet playing when my hand have descent equity, or scare card comes. Do you suggest to bet any street only if I have enough FE, e.g. when player calls flop wide, but folds turn, or when scare card comes etc?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      You bet the river to have him fold (I doubt he calls worse) so yes, you do need FE.

      And you need a good amount of it given your bet size. Do you know how much FE you need?
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,735
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      You bet the river to have him fold (I doubt he calls worse) so yes, you do need FE.

      And you need a good amount of it given your bet size. Do you know how much FE you need?
      If I bet pot size on river, I need 50% FE to be breakeven (not counting rake).

      If p is the probability that he folds, then 1-p is that he calls. IF e.g. we have 30$ pot, and I bet river 30$, then expected value is:

      E = 30$ * p - (1-p)*30$
      60p = 30
      p = 0.5

      which means, if we want to be +EV, we need him to fold > 0.5

      Now If I bet 20$ into 30$ pot,

      E = 30$ * p - (1-p)*20$
      p = 20/50 = 0.4

      so when I bet 2/3 pot size, then I need 40% FE to be +EV


      Correct?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      That's correct.

      The easy way to do this at the table is take the money you invest and divide by money you invest + pot and this gives you the % (after you multiply by 100).

      Example:

      We bet $30 in to $30. Then we divide $30 by $60 and we have 50%.

      Or 20 into 30 would be 20/50 = 40%

      So since you need him to fold 50% (at least) then that means that he needs to have a lot of hands that he can fold. So what you can do now is look at combo of hands that he calls and find out how many he needs to fold.

      For example AQ is 9 combos, KQ is 9 combos so that already is 18 combos. Without even expecting much else you need 18 combos of hands that can fold.

      Now if you add some QJ and maybe QT and some JJ, TT you can see that it quickly jumps up to a lot of combos that can call.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,735
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      That's correct.

      The easy way to do this at the table is take the money you invest and divide by money you invest + pot and this gives you the % (after you multiply by 100).

      Example:

      We bet $30 in to $30. Then we divide $30 by $60 and we have 50%.

      Or 20 into 30 would be 20/50 = 40%

      So since you need him to fold 50% (at least) then that means that he needs to have a lot of hands that he can fold. So what you can do now is look at combo of hands that he calls and find out how many he needs to fold.

      For example AQ is 9 combos, KQ is 9 combos so that already is 18 combos. Without even expecting much else you need 18 combos of hands that can fold.

      Now if you add some QJ and maybe QT and some JJ, TT you can see that it quickly jumps up to a lot of combos that can call.
      Thanks, the last comment helped a lot. I expected him to fold JJ, TT, but actually I can count readless that half combos he folds and half he calls, so I can discount those combos basically. The problem is that I was just looking for hands that could fold, e.g. small PP with fd. When I look now, there are not many hands that fold especially considering that it is vs BU 3bet so ranges are wider and people call down ligther.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Exactly,

      I think your main mistake here was setting up your mind on a 3-barrel too early in the hand without accounting for the positions, and of course the board texture.

      Lesson learned and hopefully you can apply some of this next time.