*Originally posted by BogdanPS*

You bet the river to have him fold (I doubt he calls worse) so yes, you do need FE.

And you need a good amount of it given your bet size. Do you know how much FE you need?

If I bet pot size on river, I need 50% FE to be breakeven (not counting rake).

If p is the probability that he folds, then 1-p is that he calls. IF e.g. we have 30$ pot, and I bet river 30$, then expected value is:

E = 30$ * p - (1-p)*30$

60p = 30

p = 0.5

which means, if we want to be +EV, we need him to fold > 0.5

Now If I bet 20$ into 30$ pot,

E = 30$ * p - (1-p)*20$

p = 20/50 = 0.4

so when I bet 2/3 pot size, then I need 40% FE to be +EV

Correct?