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[NL2-NL10] QQ versus. UTG bet from potential TAG/NIT

    • Raknyo
      Raknyo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2276543
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $3.04 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 3.6, Hands: 4974
      SB: $1.04 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 11, 3B: 11, AF: 0.0, Hands: 46
      BB: $1.07 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 30
      UTG: $2.08 - VPIP: 6, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 32
      MP: $3.76 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 33, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 6
      CO: $1.47 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 16

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with Q :heart: Q :diamond:
      UTG raises to $0.06, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.15) 2 :diamond: T :spade: 9 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG bets $0.08, Hero calls $0.08

      Turn: ($0.31) 7 :heart: (2 players)
      UTG bets $0.14, Hero calls $0.14

      I feel like villains turn c-betting range is mega-strong, we only win against ATs or JJ and he could have overpairs or sets. I guess he could barrel AK but even then, we are behind a lot.


      Board: 2:diamond: T:spade: 9:diamond:  7:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    21.85%  20.23%   1.61% { QQ }
      MP3    78.15%  76.54%   1.61% { 99+, 77, 22 }


      I guess this all depends on whether I think opponent has AK sometimes, I guess he could so I'll add a few combos for good measure.


      Board: 2:diamond: T:spade: 9:diamond:  7:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    30.93%  29.37%   1.56% { QQ }
      MP3    69.07%  67.51%   1.56% { 99+, 22, AdKd, AhKd, AcKh, AcKs }



      River: ($0.59) K :club: (2 players)
      UTG bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26

      Should definitely fold here, if he was barrelling AK, then he is ahead.


      Board: 2:diamond: T:spade: 9:diamond:  7:heart:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    22.41%  20.69%   1.72% { QQ }
      MP3    77.59%  75.86%   1.72% { 99+, 22, AdKd, AhKd, AcKh, AcKs }
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Hi

      I think the Turn is a pretty clear call. Your assumptions may not necessarily be true. Remember that your sample size is very small so I don't think his turn betting range is necessarily as tight as you think it is.

      River is close and this would definitely be a call vs many aggro players. I'm not too sure what the best line is vs this guy for the River - QJ did get there, you lose to K:dX and AK too and sets.