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[NL20-NL50] 55 set vs 3b flop

    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,592
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 70.3 BB (VPIP: 16.42, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 68)
      SB: 116.8 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 30)
      BB: 260.66 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
      UTG: 116.64 BB (VPIP: 22.29, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 180)
      Hero (MP): 156.24 BB
      CO: 140.7 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 29)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5:heart: 5:diamond:

      fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 5:spade: T:diamond: 3:spade:
      BB bets 3.86 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, BB raises to 28.5 BB, Hero calls 18.5 BB

      Turn: (63.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
      BB bets 55.6 BB, Hero raises to 124.74 BB and is all-in, BB calls 69.14 BB

      River: (312.98 BB, 2 players) A:club:
      Players agreed to run it twice.

      River #2: (312.98 BB, 2 players) J:club:


      Is my line ok?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi GingerKid,

      This is very similar to the previous slowplayed set hand although there are some clear differences (like ranges).

      Again, given the nature of the board and the lack of info I'd just get it in on the flop for pure value (and to avoid action killing cards and losing value).

      Do you really see people donk/3-bet as bluffs much at those limits on such boards versus EP/MP? I doubt it.

      Of course, unlike the other hand, there are fewer overpairs in villains range.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,592
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi GingerKid,

      This is very similar to the previous slowplayed set hand although there are some clear differences (like ranges).

      Again, given the nature of the board and the lack of info I'd just get it in on the flop for pure value (and to avoid action killing cards and losing value).

      Do you really see people donk/3-bet as bluffs much at those limits on such boards versus EP/MP? I doubt it.

      Of course, unlike the other hand, there are fewer overpairs in villains range.
      I don't see donk/3bet it is mostly strong hand. Actually I dont see donks heads up from the reggs almost at all. So I could conclude that he is most likely a fish?

      You are right, here I can't expect overpairs as in the other hands, at it is a question if i can expect a fd?
      So it looks as set most of the time, and I think I can get it in profitable since I have middle set, and if he bluffs or semi bluffs at least sometimes, then It is +ev. Also I guess it is +Ev even if he always has set here, since there is dead money, right?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Him always having a set means that you win vs half of it and beat half so yes.

      However, he may also have semibluffs and/or Tx/JJ type hands enough to put the balance in your favor for good (even at 50% you are still doing fine).

      So really the only advantage of calling the flop is if he has a lot of low equity bluffs that would give up on the flop but would otherwise spew turn. And since this line looks stronger and it's not something you are used to I would not assume he has these weak hands.