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[NL20-NL50] AKs vs cold 4 bet

    • legand73
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,136
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $33.18 (132.7 bb)
      SB: $24.58 (98.3 bb)
      BB: $9.42 (37.7 bb)
      UTG: $25.92 (103.7 bb)
      MP: $25.03 (100.1 bb)
      Hero (CO): $39.85 (159.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K A
      UTG raises to $0.75, MP folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN folds, SB raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.75

      Flop: ($13) K A 4 (2 players)
      SB bets $4.10, Hero calls $4.10

      Turn: ($21.20) J (2 players)
      SB bets $14.48 and is all-in, Hero calls $14.48

      River: ($50.16) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $50.16 pot ($2.00 rake)
      Final Board: K A 4 J 9
      SB showed Q Q and lost (-$24.58 net)
      Hero showed K A and won $48.16 ($23.58 net)

      Annoying not having reads on this guy. Vs unknown I should probably give villain a premium cold 4betting range right? I think i misplayed this hand if that is the case because the only hand that i'm good against is QQ with :club: If we give villain hands like AJ or AQ then i could be ok here. What do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      Fold > Call > Shove

      I think he is virtually never bluffing here, and AKs is an underdog vs a range of QQ+/AK
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.90% 22.62% 19.28% { AKs }
      MP3 58.10% 38.81% 19.28% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

      With 42% equity, I suppose calling can't be too bad especially vs smaller 4b sizes, and also because you have the suitedness which allows you to continue on way more flops.