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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 JTo river spot - check/folding on scary river card

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $26.87 (107.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $40.03 (160.1 bb)
      BTN: $18.86 (75.4 bb)
      SB: $25.14 (100.6 bb)
      BB: $11.02 (44.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with T J
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) Q 9 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.35) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

      River: ($10.35) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $5.50, Hero folds

      -----

      BTN was 41/20/7 over 63
      FtCB: F - 56, T - 50(2)
      AG% - 46 (38/50/75)

      TURN
      I value bet my 2nd pair as villain looks like a bad player overall so I expected to get calls from naked J or 9x.

      RIVER
      Is it ok to check/fold on this river? Although villain looks aggressive, I don't see what hands he could bluff with that I beat.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      Turn: I suggest you run some equity simulations for this turn spot. I'm pretty sure you cannot bet for value here even if he's a fish.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi Galvin,

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      Yeah, you are right that I can't bet for value OTT.
      Board: Qd9h5cTd
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 27.01% 24.79% 2.22% { JhTc }
      BU 72.99% 70.77% 2.22% { JJ-99, 55, AQs, KQs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, AQo, KQo }

      Since I can't bet for value and villain is folding a lot to flop cbets I don't expect villain to bet OTT with worse hands. In addition to that, I don't expect to have implied odds if I hit an OESD and I would be happy only with a T. Is it correct to check/fold OTT for these reasons?

      Thanks again!
      David
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      that kind of depends on his bet size. Don't forget that you are not only trying to hit your draw, but you also have showdown value.

      The question is whether he is calling the flop with enough Ace highs and overs/random straight draws like 78/67 or not. In my opinion I think that should be the case, so Turn C/C is probably the best line.