[NL20-NL50] 3barr vs reg

    • AriGold1980
      AriGold1980
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2010 Posts: 812
      villain plays 26/21/8 fto3b 70 in btn 4b range 4% in btn
      btn OR 48
      ftocb in 3bpot 46/40/36
      wtsd 26
      w$sd 54

      SB: $43.37 (86.7 bb)
      Hero (BB): $76.08 (152.2 bb)
      UTG: $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      CO: $91.48 (183 bb)
      BTN: $66.54 (133.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A J
      3 folds, BTN raises to $1.31, SB folds, Hero raises to $4.62, BTN calls $3.31

      Flop: ($9.49) K 7 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.74, BTN calls $4.74

      Turn: ($18.97) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $12.48, BTN calls $12.48

      River: ($43.93) 2 (2 players)
      Hero ??

      What do you think about making him fold 99-QQ on river ?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717
      Hi.

      River is kind of close.

      Not Folding
      77 - 3 combos
      66 - 3 combos
      KQ - 8 combos
      KJs - 2 combos
      KTs - 2 combos
      Flushes - 10-15 combos?
      28-33 combos

      Folding?
      QQ - 3 out of 6 combos (may 4bet)
      JJ - 6 combos
      TT - 6 combos
      99 - 6 combos
      88 - 6 combos
      7Xs - 5 combos?
      32 combos

      If my assumptions are true, then bluffing the River is fine. Would bet like 30$ here as I think it would suffice and wouldn't bother about balance too much.

      Thanks.
    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      yeah looks close, but I think KJo is in his pf calling range too, (I fold a lot to 3bets but KJo is std call for me here).

      So I'd like to bluff the riv only with good Q, J and/or club blockers like AQ or AJ w/ a club if you barrel those